For the market, the Government is betting on 'spending the winter' without devaluing

The arrival of a

this month, the implementation of the agricultural dollar since May and new loans from international organizations will try to prop up the dramatic situation of the reserves, after the Central Bank has closed the worst first quarter of the year as an accumulation of dollars.

In the market they believe that Sergio Massa

, but they warn that it will be at the cost of greater stocks and increasing fragility, and that after STEP, the exchange rate tension will once again gain volume.

"The government maintains the policy of '

by deepening the differential exchange rate scheme and thereby

,'" they said in Delphos.

at the same time that they added: "However, the upward impact on domestic prices of this type of measure is almost inevitable as it extends over an ever-growing number of products."

The option of a more expensive dollar for some sectors may have an impact on the price level and, in turn, economists fear, that it may have a recessive side, in a context in which the dollar losses due to the drought seem irreparable.

"After the first quarter, we lowered our projections for a drop in activity to 3% for this year with a particularly recessive second and third quarters," they pointed out in Delphos. 

While trying to boost the supply of dollars, the government could

"Possibly the differential dollar cannot bring relief to compensate for the lower income of dollars due to lower agricultural exports. More measures on the restriction of foreign currency access are to be expected. Mainly we see it as something feasible that access to the dollar be restricted even more for the payment of private debt and emissive tourism", they warned in the LCG consultancy.

For the economist Fernando Marull, from FM y Asociados, the idea of ​​a soybean dollar was inevitable.

And, despite this type of "differential dollars", a greater exchange rate and greater controls are to be expected: "The drought, and the drop of

of the SIRA and import debt. And obviously with a fall in reserves".

"Now the high seasonality of the 2023 harvest begins. From April, May, June, until PASO we could see a scenario of greater stability in reserves, which would become more complicated after the primaries. For the soybean dollar we will see a greater increase in reserves in April, if the producer is convinced. Obviously if there are more in April, there will be

said Marull.

In this way, these "shortcuts" that the Government takes in order not to validate a discrete jump in the official exchange rate do not manage to alleviate the pressure in the exchange market until the end of the year.

"The government will do the impossible not to devalue in 2023 and it can achieve it, only that in the meantime it will take measures that will make the need to advance on this front more and more evident," LCG warned.

For his part, Juan Pablo Albornoz, from Inveq, said: "This management does everything possible

. If that means paying a higher price to exporters and continuing to subsidize importers to the A3500, they will continue to do so. This takes away the attractiveness of very short-term dollar-linked hedges."

The economist warned: "The issuance associated with this operation of

(in practice you pay the monetary costs of a devaluation without devaluing as seen in previous soybean dollars) may have an impact on the gap."

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