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Bond exchange: the UBA began the audit and a think tank warns of the impact on ANSeS


The opinion would be ready in two weeks. A study center chaired by the vice-rector of the UBA warns about the "weaknesses" of the measure.

A week after Sergio Massa's request

, the Faculty of Economic Sciences of the UBA

began the audit

of the delayed debt swap and

could issue an opinion in the coming weeks


The house of studies, controlled by radicalism, agreed to evaluate the operation, after it was involved in the controversy due to the commotion it generated in the market and the complaints from the opposition.

"It has already begun to be done and it is in charge of professors from the faculty

," confirmed sources from the UBA.

Massa requested the evaluation last week from the institution and the General Audit of the Nation (AGN), where in both cases they questioned that Congress was bypassed.

But while the vice-chancellor of the university, Emiliano Yacobitti, accepted the requirement, the head of the AGN, Jesús Rodríguez, assured that the organization is not an "advisor" to the government.

Massa seeks to clear up the questions about the measure

, without going through Parliament.

Through a DNU, the Government ordered the ANSeS and other organizations on March 23 to liquidate their bonds in dollars for a dual bond in pesos (adjusted for inflation and devaluation) maturing in 2036. The objective was to contain the

dollars parallels and finance the public deficit in a context of loss of reserves and fiscal deterioration.

But a sector of the opposition came out to demand the repeal of the decrees and filed a

criminal complaint for "emptying" the ANSeS Sustainability Guarantee Fund (FGS)

with the "forced" sale of bonds in dollars in exchange for titles in pesos. .

Within this framework, Massa asked the UBA and the AGN to rule on whether the measure harms or favors the entities holding the titles (Globales and Bonares), without evaluating the impact on the Treasury.

Meanwhile, the RA Center - a think tank that carries out research in the field of the Faculty of Economics (UBA), chaired by Yacobitti -

 released a preliminary opinion on the "virtues" and "weaknesses" of the measure


"The exchange proposed by the National Government would imply a change of creditor, as well as a pesification of the public sector portfolio and a dollarization of the private sector," he pointed out in a paper published days ago.

He himself explains that the financial cost will depend on market expectations


This means that to the extent that the public maintains a riskier bias to a greater extent, the implicit 'cost' of sales will be lower for the State.

On the other hand, if investors reject a greater exposure to the Treasury (bond risk), associated with price variations and restructuring risks

, "the offered price would be depressed, thus increasing the cost of the operation"


The document also alludes to the marches and countermarches of the Economy.

It is that,

on January 18, the debt repurchase was announced, which generated a "positive impact

" on the price of the titles (especially those with a maturity of 2029 and 2030).


the current price has been depressed, down 25% from the peak

," the RA Center explained.

And, in March, the exchange and sale of bonds became official.

Since then, they have risen as much as 3%.

For the Yacobitti think tank,

one of the virtues is that "the Government could intervene in the

financial exchange market throughout the year

to moderate the turbulence

that brings about the adverse macroeconomic conditions that we are going through, without the use of net reserves of the Central Bank", although to stabilize it "it would be necessary for the demand for the bond in dollars to validate the excess supply in the peso segment".

On the contrary, 

a greater exchange gap would harm the ANSeS

, since the entities will receive a bonus in pesos adjusted for inflation or devaluation.

"This could negatively impact the assets of the Entities in the event that the wholesale exchange rate (A3500) diverges too much from the price of the financial dollar," the document states.

And he adds:

"The exchange implies a new issue of titles, therefore the level of debt of the national State is increased"


Finally, "the consolidation of the management of the savings banks and the holdings of financial assets of different public entities within the orbit of the National Treasury does not seem entirely inappropriate, in a scenario of gradual decline in reserves" And it concludes: "Yes, the opportunity and the ultimate objectives of the measure are debatable, necessarily requiring a comprehensive macroeconomic analysis and not a single asset valuation approach."


look also

Opposition deputies asked the Justice to suspend the sale of ANSES bonds in dollars

The Central Bank closed March with sales of US$ 1,918 million and cash with liquidation went to $407

Source: clarin

All business articles on 2023-04-06

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