Sergio Massa will have a week as his management was since he arrived at the Ministry of Economy last August.
From older to younger.
The soybean dollar 3
will debut on Monday
and it is expected to be successful, allowing the Central Bank to reach April-May with more air.
Today the net reserves are lower than when the program began with the IMF almost a year ago.
Later, towards the middle of the week, the minister would arrive in
Washington
to participate in the Spring Assembly of the IMF.
Finally, on Friday, the inflation
data for March
will be released .
The question is whether it will give above 7% or February (6.6%).
The $300
soybean dollar 3
will start trading from tomorrow.
The intention of the measure announced by the minister last week is
to encourage exports and reduce the impact of the drought
on agricultural sales to shore up reserves.
It is an 'agricultural dollar' that, in addition to containing a third round of the 'soybean dollar', extends to regional economies.
Producers will receive $300 for every dollar they settle (42% above the official exchange rate).
The program will last 45 days for soybeans and 5 months for regional economies.
The Government announced that it expects a liquidation of US$ 9,000 million.
According to a report by the consulting firm Equilibra, that amount would be made up as follows: during the 45 days that the soybean incentive lasts, US$ 7,000 million would enter.
And some US$ 1,900-2,000 million in the 5 months for regional exports.
The biggest selloffs could happen soon according to experts.
Given that the dollar will be worth $300 throughout the entire program, and inflation will run at a floor of 6%,
the incentive to sell today is greater than to do so tomorrow because production costs will increase.
In Washington,
where he will be between Wednesday and Saturday
, Massa will talk with the IMF authorities about the steps to take to receive the next disbursement scheduled for the end of June/beginning of July.
It would be about US$ 4,000 million.
To receive that money, Argentina has to meet the goals of the first quarter.
Of the three (fiscal, monetary financing of the deficit, and reserves),
only the second is on track
.
"Despite the easing, a
waiver
should be requested in the July review," considers economist Fernando Marull, taking into account that the March reserve goal "was made more flexible to US$4.2 billion from US$7.7 billion."
The agency would enable the silver despite the fact that Argentina does not meet the goals in the first quarter. The fiscal and reserve targets look compromised
.
This is indicated by the market and sources aware of the negotiation.
Having said this, the line of work in the US on the Economy this week will focus more on showing gestures and concrete announcements of measures in the direction of correcting the imbalances.
Otherwise, Argentina will have the money but
the tension within the board will not only grow but could become manifest
.
Especially from developed countries.
The
staff report
, published late this week, included a chart showing that Argentina has cheaper electricity prices for households than other large and small emerging countries.
“The IMF requested that Argentina accelerate the devaluation of the official dollar and continue with interest rates that exceed inflation;
and also to stop using reserves to control the parallel dollar
”
, adds Marull.
On the fiscal front, the goal established by the IMF is a primary deficit of $441.5 billion by March.
Between January and February, Argentina accumulated a red of $432,072 million.
The deficit data for March will only come out the following week.
But since Massa already knows that the country will not meet the goals to receive the US$ 4,000 million, it will be key to put the gestures he must show with the organization and how he legitimizes himself before La Cámpora.
The minister will participate in Washington in a meeting organized by Kristalina Georgieva and together with finance ministers and governors of Central Banks of Latin America, Canada and the United States.
He also plans a meeting with Gita Gopinath, the two of the Fund.
The week closes with the worst news for the Government.
The BCRA survey of expectations expects an inflation rate of 7% for March.
For Ecolatina the record was 7.4%, the Libertad y Progreso Foundation 7.3%, C&T Consultores 7%, LCG 6.7% and Orlando Ferreres & Asociados 7.1%.
The IMF, which in the last staff report maintained growth of 2% for the year and average inflation of 76%, could already publish a downward correction of its projections for Argentina this week when the report is released on Tuesday. World Economic Outlook.
"A review of the projections for Argentina will be necessary
," said the agency's staff in their recent report on the progress of the program.
The IMF estimated in its report that the production of soybeans, corn and wheat will fall 15% compared to what is produced in 2022. These estimates are well above what the market expects.
