In the midst of the internment that is shaking Juntos por el Cambio due to the unfolding of the elections in the City, the former head of the Central Bank, Guido Sandleris, slipped some details about the stabilization plan that the opposition is preparing: it must be different from
"
gradualism " of former President Mauricio Macri and
start with a strong adjustment in public spending
, but
maintaining some of the exchange controls.
"The new administration has to be very aggressive from the beginning in fiscal matters and very
prudent in monetary matters
, the opposite of the strategy that existed with Mauricio Macri. At that time, the
fiscal approach was gradual
due to political restrictions, we were a minority in Congress and the concern that until Macri there was never a president who was not a Peronist who finished his term," said the economist, now close to Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, on Thursday.
Sandleris spoke out against Kirchnerism and the management of Alberto Fernández before an audience of students at the
Georgetown Americas Institute in Washington
.
"We need a new stabilization program and
the Kirchnerist idea that spending generates growth doesn't work
," he shot during the talk "
Can Argentina achieve economic stability and inclusive growth?
", moderated by
Alejandro Werner
, former director for the region of the IMF.
After passing through the Macrista administration, in which
the stocks were lifted
and it was reinstated
to face a string of devaluations with outflow of deposits, Sandleris proposed changes for the future: "The economy cannot function with regulations every month, but
It doesn't mean getting rid of all the controls
, some are going to be necessary at first because there are a lot of weights, but
the Frankenstein of the stocks has to go
."
The former official began his presentation with a powerpoint to show that Argentina had a "very poor" per capita growth in the last 50 years, ranking second to last only ahead of Venezuela in a table of Latin American countries.
An x-ray in which he included 22 years with recession, 39 with inflation above 20% and
only 8 with economic growth and
at the same time inflation below 10%.
By the end of the month we will be without reservations.
I don't think they will use the deposits, they are going to have to do something, like more restrictions on imports-
Guido Sandleris Former President of the Central Bank
In this framework, he stated that the "Achilles heel" is fiscal and pointed out
the "insanity" of public spending between 2003 and 2015
, since according to his calculations it doubled from 22% to 40% of GDP.
This situation -he continued- Macri tried to correct it in 2015 and spending dropped to 36% of GDP.
"Perhaps it was very slow
," he said, in line with what the former president is proposing today.
And he said spending under the current administration is higher than it was in 2019. "
Spending more is popular, spending less is not
," he added.
"The consequence of high inflation is that in Argentina we now have 40% poverty and if we see youth and children it is well above 50%, the economy cannot continue like this because the results are horrific, we need a change," he said.
However,
she questioned the "platita plan"
and the exchange controls adopted by the administration of Cristina Kirchner and Alberto Fernández to contain inflation and exchange pressures.
"It's unsustainable," she said.
In his presentation, he outlined a scenario with a 100% exchange rate gap, a "Frankenstein" exchange regime and the loss of US$17 billion in exports due to drought.
Even with this shock, he assured that
soybean production will be similar in value to a normal year.
However, he estimated that
by the end of the month "we will be without reserves"
.
"I don't think they will use the deposits,
they are going to have to do something, more restrictions on imports," he predicted.
The former secretary of economic policy of Nicolás Dujovne projected for this year a deficit of 3.5%, inflation of 120% and
a drop of 4% in GDP.
And in a review of the agreement with the IMF, he maintained that Massa initially corrected spending, but
with "many tricks,
which
work less and less."
"The result of the program was a complete failure," he assured from Washington, where the Economy Minister is seeking funds and help from the Fund.
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