Worried about rebuilding reserves and reducing uncertainty about the dollar given the tensions that caused the blue to close at $400 on Friday, the government
is preparing to resume the bond swap suspended for a month
In the next few hours, the UBA will announce the opinion that Sergio Massa requested after the commotion caused by the financial operation, and the official expectation is that it will clear the way to start the title auctions.
"Tomorrow or early next week they will finish it," confirmed sources from the UBA.
In the end, the audit will not be in charge of professors from the Faculty of Economic Sciences, as had been mentioned at the beginning.
Andrés López (director of the Interdisciplinary Institute of Political Economy), Sebastián Katz (director of the Economics major) and Javier Curcio (head of the Department of Economics), did not receive the invitation to participate.
The Faculty of Economic Sciences is an institution
under the control of the UCR of Capital, headed by Emiliano Yacobitti.
Massa asked the current UBA vice-rector and radical deputy to evaluate the swap.
Also to the General Audit of the Nation (AGN), but its owner Jesús Rodríguez - another radical - was elusive.
The initial plan that Massa and Yacobitti imagined was that the Economics leaders put the hook.
It didn't happen.
The RA Center -a think tank that carries out research in the field of the Faculty of Economics (UBA), chaired by Yacobitti- released a preliminary opinion on the "virtues" and "weaknesses" of the measure the other day.
"The exchange proposed by the National Government would imply a change of creditor, as well as a pesification of the public sector portfolio and a dollarization of the private sector," he pointed out in a paper published days ago.
For the Yacobitti think tank, one of the virtues is that "the Government could intervene in the financial exchange market throughout the year to moderate the turbulence that brings about the adverse macroeconomic conditions that we are going through, without the use of net reserves of the Central Bank", although to stabilize it "it would be necessary for the demand for the bond in dollars to validate the excess supply in the peso segment".
He himself explains that the financial cost will depend on market expectations.
This means that to the extent that the public maintains a riskier bias to a greater extent, the implicit 'cost' of sales will be lower for the State.
On the other hand, if investors reject a greater exposure to the Treasury (bond risk), associated with price variations and restructuring risks, "the offered price would be depressed, thus increasing the cost of the operation."
Yacobitti has a very good relationship with Massa.
It is part of Evolución, the space of Martín Lousteau, and was a key piece for the Government to approve the 2023 Budget last year.
His block of radical deputies from Evolución was the one that gave the quorum so that a session could be held and then
voted in favor of the norm that Massa sent to Congress.
That day Yacobitti justified the support of his sector and said that having the Budget "avoids discretion in the distribution of funds."
But in January, in an extension of the Budget,
the UBA received a game of $1,150 million.
Three weeks ago Massa notified Yacobitti that he would ask the Faculty of Economic Sciences of the University of Buenos Aires for an opinion to define whether the papers in the hands of the ANSeS will be part of the operation.
- Will you tolerate a negative opinion from the UBA? They would have asked the minister.
In the Faculty of Economic Sciences they would have mentioned at first to consult López, Katz and Curcio.
In the end, none of the three was consulted.
On March 23, the Government ordered the ANSeS and a hundred public organizations to liquidate their bonds in dollars for a dual bond in pesos (adjusted for inflation and devaluation) maturing in 2036. But a sector of the opposition threatened to repeal the DNU and filed a
for "emptying" the ANSeS Sustainability Guarantee Fund (FGS), something that the Justice rejected and the opposition appealed this Thursday.
Now, with the opinion on the way, Massa seeks
to reactivate the operation to pesify debt without going through Congress
His obsession is to contain the exchange rate gap and avoid a devaluation on the eve of PASO.
This Thursday, the blue touched $400 and the CCL reached $402, despite the fact that the Central Bank bought US$332 million thanks to the soybean dollar.
The rebound brought some relief after strong internal and the sale of reserves in the year of more than US$ 3,000 million.
At this time, the Ministry of Economy is preparing to implement the
of the decree with the mechanism to exchange US$ 4,000 million of foreign law bonds (Global or GD) and auction titles under local law (Bonars or AL), a scheme that It would use markets regulated by the National Securities Commission (CNV) as intermediaries.
"The regulations are coming out,"
confirmed an official.
The CNV sent a signal this week by modifying the "parking" of the titles used for the purchase of CCL.
The resolution decreased from two to one day the term to settle operations with dollar bonds under local law and increased the requirement with foreign law bonds from two to three days.
The objective is to encourage demand for Bonares, a market in which the BCRA and ANSeS have greater firepower to intervene on the breach.
According to PPI, the CNV's decision "is an additional measure that could accompany the debt program in dollars in the hands of the public sector."
"We are still waiting for the UBA to rule on part of the program (exchange of Globales for DUAL36 to ANSES). Without a doubt, this change is a sign that Massa's team did not completely rule out the sale program of Bonares from public bodies," he said in a report.
The release of restrictions for the purchase of AL was
one of the points agreed with bankers
, owners of brokerage firms and owners of insurance companies in March.
It was during a breakfast at the Palacio de Hacienda, where the forced exchange of bonds was completed.
A measure designed to
circumvent the IMF restrictions
on the prior purchase of bonds with reserves, with which Massa tried to contain the gap between January and February.
Although the Fund raised no objections to the swap, last March it stated that "the initial market reaction was negative: Fitch and S&P downgraded
Argentina's foreign currency
(from CCC- to C and from CCC+ to CCC- , respectively) and foreign law bonds have fallen 3% since the announcement, reportedly due to concerns about debt sustainability.
In the market, banks and stockbrokers await the sale of bonds in dollars.
"Surely there is some offer from ALs that seeks to contain the CCL, which is quite calm," said an operator with arrival at Economy.
The city is also considering the "dollar bridge" that Massa manages in Washington.
"If it is achieved, the pressure will be less, and
we have to see if they apply the exchange measures on tourism and other items
," said economist Jorge Neyro.
The market, attentive to the exchange gap before the strong issuance of pesos that is coming
The Government modified the term to operate the financial dollar bonds: what changes