The exchange market will operate again this Monday with attention paid to the performance that agriculture can achieve in the second week of the
"soybean dollar 3
" and before a parallel segment where the dollar appears more in demand and that translated into prices.
On Friday, the blue closed at
$400, its highest nominal mark in history,
while the MEP and the cash with liquidation ended at $398 and $404, respectively.
The expectation of the City is that as the wheels run, the agricultural liquidation mechanism will oil up and the Central Bank will be able to partially recover its buying position, at least for these
45 days of greater supply in the market.
Last week, the Central managed to buy some US$ 300 million in the market, thereby reducing its negative balance for this month.
Since the price set for the soybean dollar will not change until this third phase of the program is completed, the inflationary acceleration may play in favor of producers accelerating their liquidation rate.
"The more successful the program is in terms of liquidation, although it will bring greater calm on the external front,
it will bring with it a greater injection of pesos
, as happened in previous editions," warned GMA Capital economist Nery Persichini.
At the same time, the 7.7% reported by INDEC regarding the price rise in March only complicates the exchange scenario, since although the Central Bank
increased the daily rate of devaluation
, the gap with the rest of the the prices of the economy make the price of the US currency in its different quotes look "cheap".
With the jump of the last week, the blue dollar has accumulated a rise of just over 12%
on the street
since the beginning of the year, well behind the inflation that has accumulated since the end of 2022, which reached 21.7%. in the first trimester.
Something similar happens with financial prices: after the latest modifications to the purchase of bonds related to the cash operation with liquidation, the so-called cable dollar, the rise in this price, the one used by companies to become dollarized, is little more than 17% since January, lower than that of the rest of the prices in the economy.
"In the nominal race, prices have once again taken the lead, leaving behind interest rates, the official exchange rate and wages," warned the consulting firm Delphos Investment in its latest weekly report.
While the unions already negotiate parity adjustments every three months, the Central Bank decided last Thursday
not to rule on its monetary policy rate.
The expectation is that the organization chaired by Miguel Pesce will have to validate a
new rise in the reference rate
starting this week, as to keep the financial variables within an axis and try to get closer to the goal of positive real rates that was raised with the bottom.
The rate could increase by at least 200 basis points, to go from 78% of the current TNA to 80% of the Annual Nominal Rate.
However, in the market they warn that to overcome the inflationary peak of 7.7% per month, the organism should make a greater adjustment, of 500 points.
"The overheating of prices leaves the Central Bank with the need to accelerate the devaluation of the official exchange rate and probably also raise interest rates if we take into account that inflation in April would be close to 7% per month," Delphos
added
. and warned that both strategies also contain an inflationary component.
look too
inflation vs.
salaries: the Government once again rejected the fixed sum, but the CGT presses for a minimum salary for municipal workers
To get out of high inflation, it will be necessary to reform the organic charter of the Central Bank
