Worried about rebuilding reserves and reducing uncertainty about the dollar given the tensions that caused the blue to close at $400 on Friday, the government
is preparing to resume the bond swap suspended for a month
.
To activate said operation, it was necessary for the UBA to make known the opinion that Sergio Massa requested after the commotion that the financial operation generated.
What does that report say?
The Faculty of Economic Sciences approved the opinion and indicated that the operation proposed by the Minister of Economy has
"a neutral effect"
and does not imply
"a patrimonial loss"
for public bodies.
"At the request of the Minister of Economy Sergio Tomás Massa, we proceed to respond to the queries made regarding the public securities exchange operation that involves a group of national public sector organizations," the opinion says at the beginning. .
And he adds:
"These refer exclusively to the impact that this exchange could generate in the
accounting patrimony of the organizations involved."
Then it warns: "The response contained in this document is made based on information provided by the Ministry itself and should not be considered in any way as a judgment of economic policy or an analysis of the complete and potential impact of the valuation itself developed, nor of the macroeconomic and financial implications of the initiative under analysis".
Point by point, what were the responses of the Faculty of Economic Sciences of the University of Buenos Aires to the request made by the Minister of Economy:
The responses contained in the report focus their analysis on the Sustainability Guarantee Fund (FGS) administered by the National Social Security Administration (ANSeS), given that this represents most of the holdings involved in sales and/or operations. or exchange.
The FGS constitutes a stock that should not be confused
with the flow corresponding to the periodic payment of assets
made by ANSeS, therefore the operations analyzed do not correspond to
any direct impact on the assets
to be received by the beneficiaries of the pension agency.
In fact
, the FGS was never used to solve the insufficiencies in the financing
of the public pension system or to preserve the amount of the benefits in charge of the ANSeS.
The report concludes that both
the sale and exchange of government bonds would not imply a loss of assets
for the public bodies affected.
On the contrary, both operations imply equity revaluations at the time they are carried out.
In the case of the sale of Argentine law titles (Bonars), the
capital gain is almost +46%
as a result of the sale and subsequent subscription of the dual bond 2036 for 70% of the proceeds.
In addition, the
organizations receive the remaining 30% in cash.
The exchange of global bonds implies an average revaluation of the portfolios of public bodies of around +104% average.
Although this appreciation is reduced if we take potential market prices of the securities to be exchanged, the result continues to be positive for the organizations reached by this measure (+23.4%).
The swap operations have a neutral effect
on the total debt of the consolidated public sector since they only imply a change of assets within the organizations that comprise it.
Developing
NS
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