The exchange market was agitated from Monday to Thursday and the news, this Friday at 10 in the morning, that President Alberto Fernández
decided not to run for re-election
, gave
businesses a little more
agitation .
It is not that the novelty has surprised, but the uncertainty has increased because
it is known when the resignations begin, but not when they end.
In other words: no one in the market
can guarantee the continuity of anyone,
and in particular that of Minister Sergio Massa or that of the President of the Central Bank, Miguel Pesce.
In this context, on Friday all the dollars returned to operate at higher values than in the previous session.
The blue dollar jumped to $442, the cash with liquidity to 455 and the MEP to $438.
The weekly balance indicates that the alternative exchange rates
marked increases of between 10% and 12%
.
The Government seemed to stop intervening in the bond market to appease the rise in cash with liquidity, which only yesterday jumped 4.4%.
Added to the nervousness was the fact that
foreign trade operations were blocked in the official market
(see separate) and the fact that the Central Bank
extended from 90 to 180 days
the restriction to access the official exchange market for those who continue trading. foreign law global bonds to be able to exchange currency.
What he wants is for the Bonar Argentine law to be used.
The jump in dollars also puts more pressure
on inflation.
And it ends up making investment in pesos less attractive, even though the Central Bank raised
the rate to 81% per year.
Analysts pointed out that the central bank fell short and that it should have brought the rate to at least 85%.
Possibly within a few days there would be talk that 85% would also be "short" due to the acceleration of inflation.
And furthermore, it is known that in this climate of uncertainty no rate is enough to stop those who want to become dollars.
It must be said that there is no shortage of those who bet on the "carry trade" because they believe that after this week's run the exchange rate should calm down.
And this would give the opportunity to invest a few days or weeks at the rate in pesos, to earn a good percentage in dollars.
It's all a matter of how risk averse you are.
The feeling of the operators is that in a scenario of extremely high uncertainty, the safest thing to do is to dollarize.
The big operators and the citizens who juggle their domestic economy think so.
The data that is being known is not good.
The government is largely failing to meet the fiscal deficit goal, the dollars that the Central can add to the reserves are for now less than expected.
Analysts find it difficult to get excited about the negotiations that Minister Sergio Massa said he is starting with the International Monetary Fund to reshape the current agreement.
In addition, in this exchange climate, the chances of the IMF agreeing to release an emergency line of credit without asking for a stronger devaluation of the peso as counterpart, something that the Government, for now, rejects, is reduced.
On the dollars of the field, the cash shot with liquid adds inconvenience.
The owners of the grains are no longer seduced by the special dollar at $300 -agro dollar- when Cash with liquid escapes to $455. It is a new gap, and it is already above 50%.
