The acceleration of the rise in parallel dollars once again plunged the Government, and of course the Argentines, into a
virtual nervous breakdown
.
It is well known what happens to politics, the economy and pockets when this reference price begins to move.
Something that supposedly had been working as an anchor rises up and
the shaking begins.
To make matters worse, the currency run adds more or less known ingredients: 1. A
weak government with low credibility
, 2. the start of an electoral campaign.
3. Serious, but known: a process of
inflationary acceleration
.
And 4. a factor that is beginning to gain weight in public conversation: the perspective -for now, incipient?- of a profound change in the monetary regime, that is, the possibility that Argentina adopts a "dollarization" regime
.
Add the
rumors of devaluation
, which involved the former head of Casa Rosada advisers, Antonio Aracre, and, on Friday, a brokerage house
(see page 21).
None of the factors mentioned already contribute to calm the waters.
And the balance of the week reflects those concerns.
The dollars climbed about 10% in five days.
The gaps reopened again above 100%.
The official dollar rises 23% so far in 2023.
The parallels climb 33% in the case of the dollar bag and cash with liquid, and the blue lagged slightly behind: it rises 28%.
What can happen from now on is
uncertain
.
The economy expects that the cereal companies should dump considerably more dollars into the market.
Minister Sergio Massa repeats that he is confident in getting
fresh funds
from international organizations or even from the IMF itself.
This is a troublesome issue.
The negotiations are known, but it is also said that in exchange for fresh funds, potential lenders would reasonably demand that the Central Bank
stop selling dollars at 218 pesos,
such as the wholesale dollar price on Friday.
Since it is impossible to predict what can happen from now on,
Clarín
consulted with financial analysts what, in his opinion, triggered the price of parallel dollars this week.
This they said:
Esteban Rugna
, general director of Liebre Capital.
“There were several points.
From the rumors of the resignation of Massa and Aracre, the latter confirmed, his devaluation plan... Given the rumor,
everyone tries to take exchange coverage.
The inflation data for March, released on Friday the 14th, also fell very badly. The feeling is that the Government
is running the problem behind
.
The policy rate hike announced on Thursday clearly did not help.
The rate loses effectiveness to contain inflation and the passage from pesos to dollars.
But it is true that economic activity does not resist this high rate very much.
There is a shortage of foreign currency due to the drought.
Nor is it a good sign that in the middle of the harvest the government has to come out with the soybean dollar.
In addition, the decision to limit certain imports is another clear sign that dollars are missing.
Norberto Sosa
(economist and financial analyst).
“It does not seem feasible to try to sustain the exchange rate
without devaluing in a context of very low net reserves
.
High inflation added to that a greater demand for dollars.
Also,
there are technical reasons.
The dollar counted with liqui had fallen behind.
This was seen with the 1 and 2 soybean dollars. After the liquidation, the pesos went to the money market funds and later ended up putting pressure on the alternative MEP and CCL dollars. Another reason is that with so many restrictions on access to the official market each
time There are more sectors and companies that get tired of waiting for the ok from AFIP and the Central Bank and go to alternative dollars
to be able to continue working.
This not only puts pressure on the MEP and the CCL, but also on inflation, because there are more and more prices in the economy that are related to the MEP and CCL than to the official one.”
Augusto Darget
(Silver Cloud).
“There is not much mystery.
Last year inflation was 95 and dollars rose 65%.
This year they all go up evenly ”.
Martin Polo
(Cohen).
“For me, what pushed the dollars was the inflation data for March, a number much higher than expected.
There is a general acceleration in price increases and this was also reflected in the first data for April.
The floor is now higher.
Added to this are two more factors: the very weak performance of the Agro dollar, with liquidations well below expectations, and also a new downward revision of the harvest.
The combination of high inflation, low currency settlements, poor harvest was lethal.
Fernando Marull
(FM & associates).
The inflation data was a slap in the face.
To this was added that the Government remained silent and that gave rise to all kinds of rumors.
The Government did not take measures to stop the bullfight or prices.
The BCRA rate hike fell short.
To this is added that on Wednesday the settlement of soybean dollars was paralyzed.
Lots of malpractice.
The government took two very “soft” measures to curb the dollar: it sold FGS bonds at the cost of lowering the parities, and it raised the interest rate by only 300 points.
It's not going to be successful.
Another operator from a leading firm, who preferred name retention, summed it up like this: You cannot try to sustain the exchange rate without devaluing in a context of very low net reserves.
The inflation data ended up sounding the alarm bells.
And the first option in those cases is to buy dollars to cover yourself.”
The concrete thing, what emerges from these analyses, is that for the market a stronger devaluation of the official exchange rate seems closer today than it was a few weeks ago.
