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"The shot was seen coming," according to three economists

2023-04-25T01:24:17.156Z


Dante Sica, Ricardo Delgado and Claudio Lozano had been warning of problems in the economic program, although they differ on the causes of the devaluation of the dollar.


The new shot of the 'blue' dollar, with the consequent subsequent transfer to prices, was something that three economists consulted by Clarín,

of different political colors,

were coming .

"It is part of the volatility and uncertainty that we are seeing in the market, the result of a

totally unbalanced economy,"

said Dante Sica, former Minister of Production of Cambiemos and current collaborator of Patricia Bullrich, the PRO's pre-candidate for the Presidency.

“I would not call it a currency run in the classic sense, outflow of funds in pesos and dollarization of portfolios.

Mutual investment funds and banks are not showing that”, according to Ricardo Delgado, who was an official in the Interior Ministry, but was also close to Economy Minister Sergio Massa in the past.

He believes that the IMF

is attentive to the situation and evaluating the requests from the Economy to relax certain requirements.

“There is a combination of

fragility in government policy,

the drought and irresponsible statements by the opposition,” according to Claudio Lozano, who was director of Banco Nación and part of the Frente de Todos, although he disagrees with Massa.

“The Government is

losing reaction capacity

, and has less degree of freedom.

It comes from a first quarter where all expectations were unanchored and worsened regarding the possibility of a disruptive phenomenon, be it an abrupt devaluation of the official exchange rate or an inflationary flash," according to Sica.

The depreciation of the peso and the acceleration of prices are "the product of

macro deterioration and fiscal relations:

the Government continues to have a very large fiscal deficit, for which reason it already had to resort to issuance again," according to the former Minister of Production , who was also Secretary of Industry in the presidency of Eduardo Duhalde.

“It was known that this quarter was going to be very complex due to the

shortfall of between US$15,000 million and US$20,000 million compared to last year

.

There was an asynchrony between dollars and pesos.

A correction is seen towards the accumulated inflation of the financial dollars and the 'blue' dollar, and perhaps a little more, at least until today.

The signals from the Government to stop this process are important, which is not a bullfight, although it does break expectations," according to Delgado, who was Sergio Massa's economic adviser at the time of the Frente Renovador -2013 and 2015- when the current Minister of Economy sought to be president facing Kirchnerism.

In addition, he held other positions in the civil service.

“The two issues that triggered the departure of (Martín) Guzmán as Minister of Economy, which are the shortage of reserves and the bulky indebtedness are not only there, but have worsened.

This shows the failure of the policy of concession and subordination to the IMF and the great interests of the collectors.

The reluctance of exporters to liquidate is clear, even if there is a "soy, version 3" dollar, defines Claudio Lozano, who was director of Banco Nación, but left the Government because he feels that "President Alberto Fernández did not fulfill the

promises

of the Frente de Todos in its electoral campaign”, of which Lozano was a part.

"Expectations are broken and altered, in a context of high inflation. Financial dollars and the blue can follow

this process of repricing and become something very dangerous

," Delgado analyzes.

"The Government has a battery of local measures, such as the contraction of import payments, or the possibility of selling more dollar bonds from State agencies," she adds.

"The official coalition is breaking up, with deteriorated macro conditions and a tougher international context generates this impact, for which all companies are taking cover and this increases uncertainty," according to Sica.

Lozano affirms that the opposition economists who speak of dollarization contributed to this skyrocketing of the dollar.

"Massa deepened the agreement with the IMF, and agreed to this policy that leads to suicide. What should be done is to get out of the agreement with the IMF, decree the exchange emergency, an aggravated application of the criminal tax law

and a popular program of fight against inflation

," he says.

Source: clarin

All business articles on 2023-04-25

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