When the consumer price index for March was known, which showed an increase of 7.7%, inflation in April was expected to be lower, around 6%.
However, the bullish trend of the blue dollar changed that scenario.
And
some estimates from consultants speak of a variation that could reach 8% for that month
.
In the days prior to the meteoric rise of the blue dollar, the economists who participate in the survey of market expectations published by the Central Bank had estimated an average rise of 6.3%.
However, the performance of the exchange rate, in the last few hours,
heated up the perspective of the impact on prices.
Following the rally on Monday, when it reached $462, the currency made another strong new jump yesterday.
It was listed at $497 and
closed at $495,
a new nominal record,
According to the economist Fausto Spotorno, from the consulting firm Ferreres & Asociados,
"inflation in April is going to scratch 8%,"
he said in radio statements.
"We already have two weeks with 6.5%. If the third week is the same as the second, we would be at 7.5% and we would have to add the last week," he explained.
However, as he also pointed out, an encouraging figure is that of wholesale inflation for March (5.1%), which usually anticipates a rebound in retail prices and, in this sense, could be indicating a stabilization of inflation.
The
Analytica consultancy also expects a monthly variation close to 8%, basically due to "expectations"
.
This translates into increased prices, rebranding and a lack of merchandise from suppliers because they are unaware of the replacement value of the products, their analysts explain.
According to the CPI measured in the GBA prepared by the Ecolatina consultancy, in the first half of April there was an increase of 7.3% compared to the first half of March, "confirming that the inflationary dynamics would be consolidating a higher
floor
after the acceleration evidenced during the first quarter, even though it is a month with fewer specific increases like those seen in March”, he detailed in a report.
In particular, the consultant pointed out about inflation in April, that "it is still worrying that the month's record
is once again driven by the food and beverage category (9.5%)
, within which the advances in beef stand out. poultry and eggs (both climbing 29%), fruits (16%), rice (11%) and vegetables (14%)”, explained Ecolatina.
Also on the acceleration in food prices, reported the LCG query, which measures weekly in supermarkets.
In the second week of April "the rise averaged 2.93%, accelerating 0.45 percentage points compared to the previous week."
So far this month it has accumulated an increase of 5.5%, he specified.
According to Lautaro Moschet, an economist at the Fundación Libertad y Progreso, "this exchange rate run picked up speed after the publication of inflation data for March, which was well above what the market expected and reinforced the drop in demand for pesos," he said.
