With reserves at the limit, the Government managed this Wednesday to quiet the blue dollar and financial dollars through the use of foreign currency and greater coordination with the Central Bank.
But analysts believe that the intervention margin is
increasingly limited by the deterioration of the economy.
On Tuesday, in the midst of a soaring of the blue dollar, whose price changed every 10 minutes and reached close to $500, to later close at $495, Sergio Massa told the IMF that he was going to intervene in the market -something that
the body had vetoed him
-.
Thus, he tried to calm the dollar counted with liqui (CCL) and MEP and, tied to these, the informal.
He made it over the close, albeit on the sidelines.
This Wednesday, the blue fell to $465, while the CCL fell to $455 and the MEP to $442. The Economy Minister's bet is to calm devaluation expectations.
"Yesterday, Massa decided to intervene at 1:00 p.m. and his action collapsed the financial dollars, today the collapse of the financial dollars is going to drag down the blue," they said at the Palacio de Hacienda.
Analysts are more skeptical and see that the Government improvised
an emergency scheme,
without being able to close the crisis opened last week.
Since then, the blue skyrocketed 25% and the gap with the official climbed to 120%.
The main reaction was the
use of reserves in the bond market
.
Yesterday, it is estimated that
they sold about US$ 60 million in the CCL.
"It is a matter of stopping the run using the few available dollars and as inflation and activity seem more difficult in the future, only debt with the IMF, China and others remains as an anchor in the short term. The crisis does not seem to be over, it is like when 'Toto' Caputo intervened in the exchange market against the recommendations of the IMF, that did not stop the crisis, it only gave
a few more days of air
," said economist Jorge Neyro.
The new strategy is supervised by
Lisandro Cleri
, current second vice president of the Central Bank.
Since Tuesday, Massa's man has gained greater weight in the entity's money table and "collaborates" in the intervention on the gap, in apparent coordination with the head of the BCRA, Miguel Pesce.
"
He is going to have more prominence from now on",
they recognized in the Treasury.
"It is an important change, instead of only selling nominal against pesos,
they went out to buy bonds against dollars
to soften the rise of the CCL. The only way to lower financial dollars is
by selling genuine dollars,
which seems to have started on Tuesday," said
Maximiliano Ramírez
, former Undersecretary of Macroeconomic Programming in the administration of Martín Guzmán.
The problem is that
the reserves run out.
The
soybean dollar 3 did not give the expected results
and the IMF has not yet authorized an advance disbursement.
Within this framework, the BCRA sold US$2,772 million so far in 2023 and gross reserves fell by US$8,122 million.
According to EcoGo, the net is close to US$ 1,000 million
.
And this Friday, US$ 700 million expire with the Fund.
"It is a short blanket, if you are going to use this mechanism to intervene in the parallel it will be drained (
in the event that you do not find any other alternative source
) and the net reserves are going to decrease and that is a negative sign for the market in the long term, what happens is that today you are a firefighter and the priority is to put out the fire," said Ramírez.
The devaluation of the official dollar accelerates
On the other hand,
the Central Bank accelerated the rise of the official dollar at a rate of 9% per month.
And a further rate hike is not ruled out.
In Massa's team, they recognize that the last increase (81% annual nominal) fell "short".
Massa also ordered
investigations of market players
who he believes speculated or encouraged a devaluation.
Measures that seem insufficient.
"You have the bonds and eventually raise the exchange rate for soybeans. There are tools for the short term, the issue is the cost they have, with which you have to calm the market a little more, what they are going to do is
restrict more imports,
which creates a greater gap and more prices," said Sebastián Menescaldi, deputy director of EcoGo.
Meanwhile, savers take precautions.
In some financial entities they begin to take note of the
withdrawal of dollars
.
Private sector foreign currency deposits have already fallen US$ 580 million (-3.6%) in the last 30 days as measured by the Central Bank, reported Bloomberg
NE
look too
Sergio Massa linked the rise in the dollar to an "atypical situation of rumours, versions, false reports"
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