"On Tuesday we didn't know if we would reach Friday, and here we are,"
said Andrés "Cuervo" Larroque, considering the exchange rate run unleashed two weeks ago and which is still declining.
While the Minister of Development of the Buenos Aires Community and head of Cámpora highlighted the role of the Minister of Economy in the crisis, Sergio Massa's team negotiated
emergency
aid to be able to effectively overcome
the second strong currency run of this stage of Kirchnerism
: the first after the resignation of Martín Guzmán.
In the search for an
emergency loan
to strengthen the Central Bank's reserves (the net would be below US$ 1,000 million) the first window on the list is the
of the
International Monetary Fund.
But the striking fact was that
the deputy minister and the chief economic adviser, Gabriel Rubinstein and Leonardo Madcur
were going to travel to Washington, but did not.
They let it be known that everything continues by zoom
.
The government wants the IMF to advance
at least US$5 billion
of the almost US$11 billion it plans to disburse this year.
The agency doubts that operation based on manifest fear.
The Fund's technicians consider that the advancement of the credit would be used to finance
the exchange arrears maintained by the Government
.
Being able to sell cheap dollars is a great temptation for any official.
In other words, that the IMF would give US$5,000 million so that the Government can
sell them at the rate of $222 of the official dollar
when the market considers that the dollar is $455 in cash with liquidation.
The supposed authorization of the Fund to operate with dollarized bonds opens the door for the Government to a risky move, although the minister seems willing to face any risk in his attempt to achieve some stabilization.
In fact,
raising the reference rate by 10 points
to jump to 91% per year (7.6% per month and 141% effective per year) shows that all instruments are being used to the maximum.
With inflation at 7.7% per month,
the indexation process is galloping
and understandable: nobody wants to lose
in that race and
untangling that skein will be an enormous job for the next administration
and for the entire population.
As the unbalanced official scheme is proposed, the short term is marked by a shortage of dollars and an excess of pesos.
Thus, economists agree on three points: indexation of the official exchange rate;
fewer official dollars to pay for imports and a framework of uncertainty from pricing based on a dollar higher than the official $222.
Whoever has to set prices or values for a contract,
what dollar will he take as a reference $222, $400, $467?
The cost of uncertainty is strong and the government even lost the will to defend the official dollar as a valid reference value.
In the race for indexation, the unions speed up the request for quarterly updating and fixed sums to compensate for the
sharp drop in the purchasing power
of wages, but inflation of more than 100% per year is relentless.
The title of the latest report from the consultancy Ecolatina is
"Exchange stress is transferred to prices"
calculating the increase of 6,000 durable goods in the last week of April, the month in which the blue dollar rose 19.7% between points.
Inflation in these categories was 6% on average and the analysis highlights that there are
"defensive" increases (from 10 to 25%)
due to uncertainty about the future replacement cost in an unstable context.
The government's game is on the table: Minister Massa seeks to be the candidate of the Frente de Todos and, for that, he must create conditions to
hope for some stability.
For that you will need dollars.
The minister on the hunt for dollars would be the title for the beginning of several weeks of
clenched teeth
.
look too
Andrés "Cuervo" Larroque revealed the government's concern after the currency run: "On Tuesday we did not know if we would reach Friday"
Balance of a hectic month: the blue closed at $ 469 and in April rose almost 20%
