Argentines withdrew some
US$1 billion from the banking system since the end of March
due to uncertainty about the dollar.
The departure was reflected in the dollar accounts that individuals and companies maintain in financial institutions.
That indicator has deteriorated in recent months amid falling reserves, high inflation and currency tensions.
Deposits in dollars from the private sector fell by
6.5%, going from US$16,381 million on March 20 to US$15,302 million on May 2,
according to the latest data from the Central Bank.
In this way, the withdrawals exceeded the level reached after the resignation of Martín Guzmán from the Ministry of Economy last July.
From the Ministry of Economy, however, they highlighted that "
the liquidity of the financial system
in general and in particular with regard to deposits in dollars is extremely robust."
According to official data, banks have
US$3,866 million in cash in their branches and reserves at the Central Bank reach US$11,887 million.
This represents a
coverage of more than 100% of private sector deposits.
"Therefore, the sum of reserve requirements and cash availability in dollars from banks exceeds the stock of private deposits more than covering and guaranteeing solvency in the system."
pointed out from Economy.
Close to Sergio Massa they believe that the "quick action" of the economic team to stabilize the financial dollars and the sharp rise in rates brought calm to the markets.
Following the intervention in the bond market, the blue closed at $469 last week, the CCL at $456 and the MEP at $432.
They also maintain that deposits increased by US$30 million as of May 4.
Despite the fact that the government calmed parallel prices after the currency run, analysts maintain that the situation
remains fragile.
The soybean dollar settlement has accumulated just US$2 billion since its start in April, less than 30% of the first version in its first 16 rounds and below the second, according to Ecolatina.
Thus, the Central Bank
continues to find it difficult to stop the bleeding of dollars
and net reserves are already in negative territory, according to several consultants.
A factor that impacts private deposits.
"According to the latest available data,
gross reserves reach US$34.1 billion.
If we discount reserve requirements and swaps mainly, net reserves
are negative by US$1.2 billion.
Although they had already shown red numbers at the beginning of 2022, they have never been below $1 billion," said a report by GMA Capital.
Within this framework, the Government
resumed negotiations with the IMF to advance disbursements,
an amount that reaches US$ 10.8 billion in the remainder of 2023. It also seeks to postpone the use of dollars in foreign trade through a credit in reais for exports of Brazil and an extension of the swap for the payment of imports in yuan.
"However, these financial life preservers do not look optimistic considering that the BCRA sells US$ 100 million per day at the same time that the debt with importers thickens," warned LCG.
The gap between the official dollar and the parallels -today around 100%- continues to be a key variable in the dynamics of reserves, since it discourages the supply of foreign currency from the export sector and feeds expectations of devaluation.
All in all, analysts agree that withdrawals from dollar deposits
are not a risk at the moment
.
"The liquidity of the banks is gigantic
and we do not see any risk on that side. The withdrawal of dollars is the problem, rather it is the consequence of the general instability. And of course this is in the mood of the population," explained a report from Ecoviews.
