Due to the fall in revenues, the deficit doubled in April and the goals with the IMF are complicated

The public accounts deepened their deterioration in April by throwing a primary deficit of $ 331,000 million. The result implies an increase of 100% real compared to last year and a greater imbalance than last month, when the red totaled $ 257,000 million, despite the reduction in spending in real terms.

If interest payments on the public debt (not counting intra-public sector payments), which reached $ 76,000 million, are included, the financial deficit was $ 407,000 million in April.

In the first quarter, the primary deficit accumulated $ 1 trillion (0.59% of GDP), according to the Ministry of Economy. The agreement with the IMF envisaged a cap of $440 billion (000.0% of GDP) for the first quarter, a limit that has already been exceeded, and a cap of $3.1 trillion for June (2.0%). In March, the reserve target was exceeded, so the Government is negotiating a review of the program.

On the collection side, the public sector added $1.8 trillion in April (71.9% in the last 12 months), an increase below inflation of 108.8% in the same period. Revenue was affected by a 33% drop in export duties.

"For the fourth consecutive month, there was a negative impact on the collection associated with the foreign trade taxes of the National State as a result of the drought," said Economy.

Between January and April, the authorities estimate an approximate fall of $ 580,000 million compared to the projections on export duties in the 2023 Budget.

Contributions and contributions to social security grew 110.5%, VAT net of refunds 115.2% and the tax on Debits and Credits and income tax registered increases of 97.7% and 91.7%.

In turn, primary spending reached $2.2 trillion (88.7%), below inflation in April. Thus, the real year-on-year variation was negative (-9.7%). Except for PAMI benefits, all social benefits lagged behind price developments: family allowances (28.7%), non-contributory pensions (86.9%), AUH (77.5%) and retirements and pensions (91.3%).

At the same time, economic subsidies grew by $122,713 million (75.7%) due to the dynamics of energy subsidies (96.9%), which includes the advance purchase of LNG. The latter had plummeted in March and are expected to fall again in May due to the removal of subsidies promoted by the government.

Capital spending, on the other hand, rose 99.4% due to energy infrastructure and housing works.

The fiscal data adds further pressure to the government to make the commitment to reduce the primary deficit from 2.3% in 2022 to 1.9% in 2023 more flexible. The Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, advances in a rise in rates and restricted access to the pension moratorium and social plans, but the fall in spending is not enough to compensate for the loss of income.

The combined effect of the drought and the advance of exports in December by the soybean dollar hit the trade balance. In April, it marked a deficit of US $ 125 million and in the first quarter accumulated a red of US $ 1,458 million.