The soybean 3 dollar proved less effective than its previous versions, even with some acceleration of the liquidations in recent days. US $ 3,534 million were settled through the soy complex and there are only three business days left. Thus, the objective of raising US $ 5,000 million with the currencies of the oilseed is blurring and Minister Sergio Massa has to find another alternative to collect greenbacks.
The effectiveness of the soybean dollar 3 in nourishing the Central Bank of foreign currency amid the devastation of drought was modest. The Central Bank managed to capture 24% of the funds that were liquidated, compared to 74% that bought in the dollar soybeans 2 and 65% in the first version.
The soybean 3 dollar will be in effect until May 31. It offers soybeans $300 pesos per dollar, while the wholesaler is now trading at $235. Although rumors appeared in recent days indicating that the program could be extended from official offices, they maintain that this will not happen.
The president of the Chamber of the Oil Industry of the Argentine Republic and the Center of Cereal Exporters (CIARA-CEC), Gustavo Idígoras, told TN that the Ministry of Economy informed them that the soybean dollar 3 will not be extended beyond its expiration.
"It was decided not to extend the agro dollar for soybeans. Exporters do not want it to spread either. It is a headache where the industry always loses, "said the businessman.
While exporters supported the entry program, the soybean dollar 3 was losing interest as the financial dollars climbed. "The incentives of the program are diluted with the passing of the days, being that thes $ 300 initially represented 42% more than the wholesale exchange rate, while now it is only 29% higher, and the jump in financial quotes complicates even more. At the beginning, the agricultural dollar implied 25% less than the one counted with liqui, while now it is 37% lower, "they detail from the Capital Foundation.
Will there be a fourth round?
With the shortage of dollars as a permanent condition, in the market they assume that there will be dollar soybeans 4, although in the Ministry of Economy they do not release pledge on the subject.
After three versions of the soybean dollar so far in Sergio Massa's administration, exporters are already managing with the conviction that they will only sell when the exchange rate improves.
Analyst Salvador Di Stéfano predicts that the soybean 4 dollar will be born in the middle of next month. "I think that in the second half of June they will launch the soybean dollar to arrive better positioned to the PASO," he says.
"The situation is so precarious that it would not be strange that in July/August a new window opens especially thinking about exports of by-products such as soybean oil or cakes / pellets," says Pablo Repetto, of Aurum Valores.
The announcement of the next version of the soybean dollar will depend on the government's chances of obtaining foreign currency in another way. "First the government is going to evaluate what happens with China and the Monetary Fund," says Di Stéfano.
How much should the soybean 4 dollar be quoted at? For Di Stéfano the minimum should be $ 350 - 16% more than the soybean dollar 3 - and the ideal, $ 400.
Economist Salvador Vitelli points out that the probabilities of a soybean dollar or a corn dollar as circulated in the last hours "are inversely proportional to the exchange rate weakness of the Central Bank. At present that weakness is quite considerable considering that net reserves are in the negative."
Although in the second part of the month the Central reversed the selling trend that had been showing daily since April in the exchange market and managed to add a positive balance of US $ 307 million, these contributions are insufficient to reverse the negative result of US $ 1750 million in net reserves,
"It is very likely that the exchange rate dynamics will end up forcing the generation of another differential exchange rate, especially if there is no disbursement by the IMF. For now it would seem that the possibility of a disbursement is there, "says Vitelli.
The government continues to negotiate with the IMF the advance for June of disbursements of US $ 10,800 million. And at the same time, Minister Sergio Massa will travel next week to China to achieve an extension of the swap with that country that allows him to have at least US $ 5,000 million to allocate to imports.
But even if Massa managed to get one more rabbit out of the galley, with the electoral uncertainty stirring up the pockets, the accounts would remain in the red and the minister will have to continue sharpening the pencil to get foreign currency.
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