This Wednesday ended the third edition of the soybean dollar. Despite a bad start, the liquidations rebounded from the end and thus allowed to complete the US $ 5,000 million planned when the program was launched.
Strictly speaking,US$ 5,086 million will be settled, as reported by the Central Bank. However, the coffers of the entity directed by Miguel Angel Pesce could benefit little from this contribution. Throughout May, the Central Bank only managed to buy US$ 850 million.
Of that amount, almost half got it in the last round of the month, with purchases for US $ 451 million. The soybean 3 dollar started on April 10. That month the monetary authority could only pocket US $ 33 million.
Of the US$ 5086 million entered into the program, US$ 1,944 million – 38% of the total – entered in the last five days.
"The liquidation objective was reached today, but the program shows that the demand for foreign currency in the Single and Free Exchange Market (MULC) does not cease to be able to retain only 27.5% of the liquidated. The balance is complemented by the fact that the BCRA has bought these currencies at an implicit exchange rate of $ 487.4, "says from Aurum Valores.
Although theUS $ 5,000 million were exceeded, from the consultancy Ecolatina they maintain that the soybean dollar 3 "did not meet the objectives".
"The initial target set of $5 billion referred only to liquidations ofthe soybean complex. Therefore, we can infer based on statements by officials that the true target value was between US $ 000,7 million and US $ 000,9 million when also contemplating the liquidations of regional economies, "they said.
The soybean 3 dollar set a differential exchange rate of $300 to the dollar. The beginning of the program was difficult, since due to the drought soybean production was even lower than what was expected two months ago. From an estimate of 22.5 million tonnes in March, it went to the current estimate of 21 million.
Thus, it is estimated that 8 million tons of grain were marketed throughout the program, two million less than estimated. At start-up, an average of 100,000 tons per day were liquidated. It also played against the skyrocketing of parallel dollars, which at the end of April jumped 50 pesos for cash with liqui and blue.
This widened the gap between the $ 300 per dollar that producers received and the price of cash with liqui that jumped to $ 450 at the end of April and today is $ 490.
With alternative dollars escalating, the incentive to liquidate was reduced. However, on the second half of May, the fall in the price of soybeans – which in the Chicago stock exchange fell by around 9% – reactivated interest in the soybean 3 dollar and led to a rise in settlements.
Now expectations are set on the arrival of a possible soybean dollar 4. From the Government they assure that it has nothing planned, but in the market they take it for granted. The reasoning is that after the three versions of soybean dollar offered by Sergio Massa since he arrived at the Ministry of Economy, producers / exporters are clear that they will not liquidate if there is no incentive involved.
Analysts estimate that the soybean 4 dollar will arrive in late June or early July. And it will offer a quote of between $350 and $400. The implementation of a new edition of this program will become more urgent depending on the government's foreign exchange needs.
If after the trip to China and the one he plans to the United States in the coming weeks Massa does not get the dollars he went to look for, the urgency to capture the currencies that remain in the possession of the field will become more urgent.
AQ
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