The one who fills the tank, wins. That could be a new slogan to beat inflation. The price of naphtha increased by 340% in the last four years, while the cumulative cost of living in that period rose by more than 600%.
Fuels have been adding monthly increases of 4% since December 2022, except in March when it was lower (3.2%). However, at this level of recomposition, they again increase below accumulated inflation.
The liter of super naphtha is shipped at $ 184.70 at YPF pumps in the city of Buenos Aires, the main national reference. Four years ago, in May 2019, it was at $42. If fuels had risen at the same rate as inflation, naphtha should be at $295.
The price of fuel is one of the most observed by politicians when it comes to electoral campaigns. It is assumed that there will continue to be corrections of 4% per month, at least until the PASO, in mid-August. That would enable two more increases, of 4% each, on June 15 and July 15. Even so, it will run below inflation.
"The increases in Fair Prices (the agreement between the Government and the oil companies to coordinate the increases) are below the evolution of inflation and the depreciation of the exchange rate," observes a report by Economía y Energía, the consultancy led by Nicolás Arceo.
Between April 2023 and April 2022, the price of gasoline fell by 14.6% in constant prices, that is, discounting accumulated inflation. It also fell 6.6% measured in dollar terms.
In March, a liter of premium naphtha was $217. In August, after the succession of increases, it should be $ 253, according to estimates Economy and Energy. In March, each liter shipped was equivalent to one dollar, an equation that took place during much of the 90s and also since the expropriation of YPF, in 2012. In July, the price would be 90 cents, a 10% decline in "hard" currency.
"Between May and August, the projected inflation and the projected exchange rate were considered in the Central Bank's REM estimate of April 2023," according to Economy and Energy, which prepared these data based on information from the Ministry of Energy.
Premium naphtha was at $48.59 in May 2019, while it now ships at $232. If the remarking of fuels had been the same as inflation since that month, the sale value would be $ 337.
These data could be indicating a new delay in fuel prices. The opposition believes that it is another of the energy products that are lagging, along with electricity and gas tariffs.
In Brazil, President Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva wants Petrobras to cut fuel prices. The Brazilian state-owned company had been following international trends. But the new decision is to promote amounts more focused on the needs of the domestic market.
What will happen to naphtha in 2023
The cumulative fuel increases for the period January-August 2023 is between 36% (super naphtha) and 50% (premium) if the forecasts of the two price agreements announced so far are met. Although it is not possible to determine what inflation will be in those months, analysts estimate a rise in the cost of living that will be double, in an area of 80%.
The current management of YPF has already applied long freezes on two occasions. The first was as soon as he took office, from December 2019 to August 2020. The liter was dispatched at $ 53 and only in August was enabled to rise to $ 56. The formula was repeated between May 2021 and January 2022, where the liter remained stable at $90. Only in February was it tweaked to $ 99.
The constant of election years
The choice of this administration to postpone price increases in election years has already been almost a constant of all governments. In the mandates of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, there were increases in 2012 and 2014 (taking the price of fuels to levels in dollars not seen since the 90s), but they were very careful in the election years (2013 and 2015).
In 2013, some increases came to be applied shortly after the ruling party lost the legislative elections. The main executioner of the Front for Victory (the electoral name of Kirchnerism at the time) was Sergio Massa, current Minister of Economy.
Mauricio Macri's administration also resorted to this contraption. In 2018, a non-election year, the increases at the pumps were 60%. In this way, they exceeded the annual inflation of that year, which reached 47.6%.
In 2019, with the presidential elections, the government asked oil companies to freeze prices for three months. The companies refused. The Executive paralyzed prices by decree for 90 days (June, July and August). The measure was not enough to improve the electoral chances of Cambiemos, which lost the primary elections.
In any case, the Government insisted on this path. He enabled a 4% increase (at the time, it was $2) for after the election. And the oil companies maintained the amounts during September and October, again with the idea of not contributing to inflation.
NE
See also
