The former Minister of Economy of the Nation, Martín Guzmán, reappeared this Sunday with a warning regarding the impact that the economic ideas of some sectors of the opposition could have, before a possible scenario of change of Government.
The former official gave an extensive report in Perfil, where he agreed with Domingo Cavallo that the idea of unifying the exchange rate would generate a negative impact on the Argentine economy, with a weakened Central Bank.
"It's a very interesting contribution to the debate. Wanting to unify the foreign exchange market at once in this situation, with a low level of reserves, and after what was the need for monetary issuance in the pandemic, is playing Russian roulette, it is a very complicated bet, "he said.
However, he clarified that it is necessary to resolve the exchange rate situation, but strengthening reserves.
"That is where purely macroeconomic decisions, exchange rate, fiscal, monetary are very important, but also the definitions of the role that the State plays for economic development," he added.
Presidential candidate Patricia Bullrich proposed eliminating the trap and unifying the exchange rate.
A few days ago, Cavallo also warned that if the next government decides to eliminate the exchange rate trap quickly without first applying a fiscal adjustment with a cut in monetary issuance, the result will be "a hyperinflationary explosion, very costly from the social point of view and devastating from the political point of view."
"The opposition candidates have to be very cautious with their proposals and initial actions to avoid the trap that will be activated above all by the existence of the exchange rate trap," concluded the creator of the convertibility.
Patricia Bullrich proposed that, if she is elected president, eliminate the trap and unify the exchange rate during the first days of an eventual economic management headed by her government. Much more drastic is the initiative of the libertarian candidate, Javier Milei, who promotes the idea of dollarizing the Argentine economy.
Guzman agreed with the proposal of the former head of the Economy Ministry of Menem and De la Rua, contradicting this position and pointing out that there are currently "multiple" exchange rates in Argentina.
"The multiple exchange is multiple effective exchange, which in Argentina is present with export duties to the commodity sectors. What we want is an economy that adds value in production," he said.
However, he stressed that it should be the political leadership that sets the economic process. "There are issues of the functioning of the economy that cannot be changed, which is not that with political will, with voluntarism they are resolved, such as economic restrictions," he said.
Along these lines, he said that there are currently strong economic restrictions and that it is necessary to "define how state resources are used."
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