Sergio Massa took office in August 2022 with the idea of ordering the economy and being a candidate. Since then, it moves with a lot of power and despite the bad results and its ambiguity seems to maintain its electoral aspirations. Always with the condition of a single candidate, which implies that there is no PASO in the ruling party.
Of course, what I experienced in all these months went in the opposite direction to what I expected, with runaway inflation and reserves at the limit in the Central Bank. And yet, the minister is very confident about dealing with the complexity. But there is something that displaces him these weeks and is the launch of candidates from different sectors of the ruling party.
Close to Massa they no longer only maintain that it weakens Peronism. They reason in this way: "If there is PASO, the candidates of the Frente de Todos individually voted can come out fourth. And when in the first positions are those who proclaim dollarization like Mieli or bi-monetarism like Bullrich, how much does the dollar arrive the Monday after the PASO?" They dramatize: "There will be no disbursement that reaches to stop the run. There is no plan B."
For Massa, the key to his management is to avoid a sharp jump in the dollar. That is what explains why he pleads with the Chinese and insists with the IMF. In the privacy of his team they argue that devaluing the official at this time would be very dangerous because of the impact on prices that would lead to escalation of the crisis when the social picture is so delicate. "We do not see a controlled devaluation, it would be a sin because of the high social cost," they point out.
In that sense the statements of his bishops are read. Both Cecilia Moreau, president of Deputies and the Secretary of Transportation, Diego Giuliano, who accompanied him on his recent tour to China came out to demand that there be no PASO in the ruling party. Moreau took aim at those who play soldiers and openly criticized Daniel Scioli who jumped in. Giuliano went further and warned that the Renewal Front, Massa's space, could abandon the Front of All.
Moreau, almost an alter ego of the minister, put it crudely: "Massa is tired of maintaining stability, while other leaders of the Frente de Todos play internally with cardboard soldiers. It is sad to arrive and see that locals and strangers, who generated the crisis are here playing soldiers. Two sides of the same coin."
He continued: "I am alarmed that officials, especially the ambassador to Brazil, are not taking care of getting investments in the midst of a complicated economic situation for the country. It seems irresponsible to me that instead of generating government actions they are discussing candidacies. Scioli has to make a decision if he is going to be a candidate or continue as an official abroad, but this situation does not correspond while he campaigns and does not get credits or development paths for Argentina, "said Moreau.
By the way, there is already experience in the face of unexpected election results. On August 12, 2019, after Alberto Fernández won by 16 points over Mauricio Macri in the primaries, there was a black Monday: the stock market fell 38% in pesos and almost 50% in dollars, and the exchange rate jumped 19%. That month the dollar accumulated a rise of 35.8%, amid a sharp outflow of capital and a drastic fall in reserves.