A Senate report published Wednesday recommends better support and more detection of companies in difficulty, in order to reduce the fiscal risk associated with state-guaranteed loans (PGE). These loans, granted to the tune of 143.8 billion euros during the health crisis to keep companies' cash flow afloat, have also increased their debt.
The worst-case scenario provides for up to 5.3 billion euros in net losses for the State if companies default on the repayment of their PGE: "The various estimates made since the implementation of the PGE have anticipated net losses of between 1.4 and 5.3 billion euros," according to the report of Senator LR Jérôme Bascher, who is secretary of the Senate Finance Committee.
The level of insolvencies of VSEs and SMEs "has significantly increased compared to 2019 while these types of companies concentrate the bulk of PGE and capital remaining due", which amounted to 31.93 billion euros on 1 January, against 50.7 billion already repaid, says a summary of the report, seeing there "a point of vigilance". And accommodation and catering and manufacturing, where insolvencies are massively increasing, "must be the subject of particular attention to the level of PGE risk". Conversely, reassuring point: "companies manage to post high margin rates".
But we must expect in 2026 a concentration of risks of non-repayment and a wave of calls in guarantee because this year is that of the end of repayment of 72% of PGE. To mitigate these risks, the report proposes eight measures, including a rapid and "fair level" compensation of the public bank Bpifrance "for the expenses incurred for the monitoring and management of PGEs on behalf of the State". In addition, estimates of overall net losses associated with EMPs should be evaluated quarterly rather than semi-annually, the senators said.
Finally, the report proposes that the government and the Bank of France communicate more about financial support mechanisms, in particular to "defuse fears related to the use of credit mediation". It also suggests strengthening the "weak signals" system to identify companies in difficulty, by extending it to companies with less than ten employees (VSEs).
