Within hours of the change of government, investors were once again betting on the dollar. Financial dollars rose to touch $935, and the blue dollar advanced to $955.
In a market with increased demand and less supply, the Central Bank had to go out and sell US$ 149 million on Wednesday. Thus, in the four rounds that took place in December, it already lost US$ 385 million, practically the same figure that it had accumulated throughout October, when it closed the month with a balance in favor of US$ 385 million.
The search for hedging intensified in the last few hours as speculation is made about what the price of the wholesale dollar will be on Monday, the first business day after Javier Milei took office as president.
On Sunday night, Guillermo Francos, who serves as Milei's spokesman and will be his interior minister, anticipated that a reasonable dollar would trade at $650. The market perception is that it will be around that price, but it's unclear if the 80% jump to reach that parity would be done in one go.
In fact, this Wednesday some operations were closed in SIOPEL, the Electronic Open Market (MAE) system in which negotiations between private parties are carried out, which will be settled next Monday at $500. These are small operations, as no more than two million dollars were traded.
Accordingly, the December dollar future, which had been falling since the first round of elections in October, rose 4.1% on Wednesday, to reach $770.
The blue dollar also moved upwards, which rebounded 45 pesos in the wheel to touch $955 and the MEP and the spot with liqui, both with closes at $937.
In the stock market segment, the Merval index ended lower, with a decline of 1.9% in the measurement in dollars. In New York, ADRs alternated ups and downs with the fall of IRSA with 7.5% and the rise of Cresud with 5.7% as the highlights.
On the other hand, bonds in the dollar continued to recover, with the AL30 leading the way and up 4.5%. This led country risk, JP Morgan's indicator that measures the surcharge on Argentina's debt, to fall 2.1% to 1896 basis points, the lowest level in 10 months.
For Javier Rava, director of Rava Bursátil, "today the shares did not respond well among the listed ADRs in New York. Likewise, and among other items, the banks did not maintain a positive round and as a whole exposed a Merval in dollars that fell by around 2%. The flip side was dollar bonds, which maintain the good positive trend and appreciated along the entire curve, with 4.52% in the case of the AL30 in its local dollar market."
For Javier Casabal, Fixed Income Strategist at Adcap Grupo Financiero, "we are in a fragile situation, since it is not clear who is going to make the fiscal adjustment, if it can be done, what the jump in the exchange rate is going to be like and if it is going to generate problems. These are all questions that still have no answers. So, the market reached a ceiling, and to continue rising it is going to require testing, that is, it will wait to see the execution of Milei's stabilization plan."