Carlos Melconian anticipated this Thursday a "tougher quarter with more inflation" and, although he pointed out that it is important to explain the conditions under which the government of Alberto Fernández leaves Argentina, he suggested to Javier Milei that "it does not go too far or scare society".
In an interview with TN, the economist considered that the most serious mistake of Mauricio Macri's mandate was that "on December 10, 2015, society was not presented with the country that was being received." However, he cautioned that it would not be right to go to the other extreme either.
"I've heard talk of 'stagflation' and that you have to buy generators. I wouldn't like it to go too far and frighten society, because expectations in the economy play a very important role," he remarked, referring to the statements of the president-elect and his foreign minister, Diana Mondino.
In the same vein, he continued: "You can't sell colored mirrors, but I wouldn't want to overadjust either, at least in the sense of expectations. That's why I never got hooked on the chainsaw. I realized later that it was a political element that stuck."
Although he did not support the "chainsaw" concept, he made it clear that issuance is not the solution: "From 2008 onwards there was absolutely unnecessary overspending. Assuming that we bet on the social so that people would be better off, we ended up with more poor people. Therefore, the myth that if public spending explodes it will be better off collapses. So, neither chainsaw nor this craziness of what happened since 2008."
On the other hand, he wished luck to the leader of La Libertad Avanza in his imminent government: "I always want Argentina to do well and I have always given the right at the beginning of a government, so I wait for it with the best expectations."
"He's going to have to get out there and play. This is going to be an intensive result: see if the ball goes in. Because if it doesn't come in, even the best managers start to have problems. Let's hope the ball goes in. I hope he doesn't miss the opportunity once again," he added.
Carlos Melconian: "transition period" and "backward prices"
Melconian, who accompanied Patricia Bullrich as economy minister in the 2023 elections, pointed out that the transition period is inevitable and that "any of the candidates who won were going to have to go through it."
Although he avoided talking about time, he considered that it is necessary to wait for "prices to settle": "If you take the last five years, you have 1300 percent accumulated inflation. Some prices increased by 600% and others were brought forward to 1900%. Until those prices settle down and even out, it takes a while."
"Among the prices that rose 500% or 600% are electricity, gas, fuel, informal wages and the exchange rate of imports, because no one believes 350 pesos. High prices will have no choice but to drop demand because they got ahead of themselves, like cars or clothing," he said.