Romania. The government plays its survival in parliament

Nothing more for the Romanian Prime Minister whose government faces a vote of no confidence Thursday in parliament.

The Social Democrat government of Romania is now hanging on to the opposition, which is playing its all-out role in overthrowing Prime Minister Viorica Dancila in a vote of no confidence on Thursday, just a month away from the presidential election.

On paper, the opposition has the 233 votes required to pass the motion, but the suspense will last until the last moment, withdrawals among slingers of the left is not excluded. "This motion will not pass, I trust the good faith of elected officials attached to the stability of the country," assured Ms. Dancila, struggling for several weeks.

It has multiplied the promises of last-minute budget extension to local elected officials, to ensure the loyalty of parliamentarians, according to critics.

The last days have also given rise to a real transfer window, where elected officials likely to change sides have been offered positions in the civil service and positions eligible for the next legislative elections.

To prevent possible "betrayals" from their ranks, the Social Democrats will be present at the debate but will not participate in the vote, said the Prime Minister.

The result of the vote is eagerly awaited in Brussels, where the first candidate for the post of Romanian Commissioner has been reprocessed by MEPs: the future president of the European executive, Ursula von der Leyen, will not vote on the proposed new Romanian candidate by Mrs. Dancila as long as she does not know if she is still in charge.

This vote of no confidence could also have a direct impact on the presidential election, the first round of which is scheduled for November 10 and to which Mrs Dancila is a candidate for the Social Democrats. If her government is overthrown, she risks losing her chances of reaching the second round.

Minority Government

If the motion succeeds, outgoing center-right president Klaus Iohannis, who seems sure to be re-elected for a second term, will consult the different political parties before appointing a new prime minister.

"The future government will have a short mandate, almost a transitional mandate , " while legislative elections are scheduled for the end of 2020, he said this weekend.

In office since January 2018, Mrs Dancila's executive was weakened by the failure of the May European elections, followed in August by the break-up of the coalition with her centrist ally Alde. Ms. Dancila has since headed a minority government.

Back in power at the end of 2016, the Social Democrats first brought down two governments in the space of seven months: the strongman of the left Liviu Dragnea, now imprisoned for corruption, had estimated that the Prime Ministers he had himself chosen were no longer "loyal" to him .

Mined by dissension, the opposition has so far failed to agree to propose an alternative majority.

The former minister Ludovic Orban, leader of the Liberals from which Mr. Iohannis is born, is expected to lead a new executive, but is far from unanimous.

Whatever the outcome of the vote, the economic indicators are worrying: the government - current or future - will draft the 2020 budget, a task complicated by the explosion of public spending in recent months.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has already warned of the risk of a slippage in the deficit and called on Bucharest to abandon a doubling of pensions by 2022 as promised by the Social Democrats.

Rejecting these increases would be unpopular in this poor EU country where the population has struggled with the austerity measures adopted by the conservative government after the 2008 global financial crisis.

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