It's currently running into a tight race between Left, CDU and AfD. Four weeks before the state elections in Thuringia on 27 October, the three parties are almost equal. This results from a representative survey of the opinion research institute Civey for the SPIEGEL.
Accordingly, the left of Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow is currently around 25 percent, the CDU follows with about 24 percent and the AfD reaches about 22 percent. The sampling error is 2.7 percent.
Ramelow governs in the fifth year with a red-red-green alliance in Erfurt. However, according to the SPIEGEL survey, his coalition currently has no more majority: the partners reach just under 43 percent.
Because Left and AfD are strong, a very complicated coalition formation is to be expected. For example, the coalition of CDU, SPD and Greens in Thuringia, which is targeted in Saxony and Brandenburg, currently has no majority. And Thuringia's CDU lead candidate Mike Mohring has ruled out both a coalition with the Left and the AfD.
The Greens reach in the survey about 9 percent, the SPD 8th The FDP fights with the five-percent mark. 3035 people were interviewed between the 2nd and 26th of September.
The right-wing populists have apparently not been harmed by the recent debate over their top candidate Björn Höcke of the party's nationalist "wing" network. Höcke had wanted to repeat an interview with the ZDF, because he was not prepared for the questions, according to his spokesman. The ZDF journalist dismissed this request as completely unusual, whereupon Höcke and his speaker broke off the discussion after a short discussion (read more about why Höcke loses importance in his party, read here).
Thuringia's CDU wants to return to the government after five years on the Opposition Bank. The aim of the state parliament election is to become the strongest party and to take responsibility again, said CDU chief Mike Mohring a few days ago. "The question is, will Thuringia be governed in the future by the margins or from the middle," said Mohring with reference to Left and AfD.
State election Saxony 2019
Final result
List voices Result
Shares in percent
CDU
32.1
-7.3
The left
10.4
-8.5
SPD
7.7
-4.7
AFD
27.5
+17.7
green
8.6
+2.9
FDP
4.5
+0.7
Free voters
3.4
+1.8
allocation of seats
Total: 119
Majority: 60 seats
14
10
12
45
38
The left (14)
SPD (10)
Green (12)
CDU (45)
AfD (38)
Source: Provincial Returning Officer
Results in detail
According to the results of the survey in Thuringia, the polarization between the governing parties and the AfD is also intensifying there - as it had been in the provincial election campaigns in Saxony and Brandenburg. In Saxony, the ruling since 1990 CDU fell to a new low (32 percent), the AFD came to 27.5 percent - their best state election result ever.
Landtag election Brandenburg 2019
Final result
Second vote result
Shares in percent
SPD
26.2
-5.7
CDU
15.6
-7.4
The left
10.7
-7.9
AFD
23.5
+11.3
green
10.8
+4.6
BVB / Free Voters
5
+2.3
FDP
4.1
+2.6
other
4.1
+0.2
allocation of seats
Total: 88
Majority: 45 seats
10
25
10
5
15
23
The left (10)
SPD (25)
Green (10)
BVB / Free Voters (5)
CDU (15)
AfD (23)
Source: Provincial Returning Officer
Results in detail
In Brandenburg, the Social Democrats took 26.2 percent of the vote. The AfD came second with 23.5 percent just behind in second place (2014: 12.2). The traditionally weak CDU in Brandenburg fell to 15.6 percent (2014: 23.0) on their worst national result and now ranks - as in the European elections in May - behind the AfD in third place.
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