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Polling station in Berlin: "We are at a point where everything can come out"
Photo: Emmanuele Contini / imago images / Emmanuele Contini
It's going to be a long evening.
One heard this sentence again and again in Berlin in view of the first prognoses and projections for the election of the House of Representatives.
The SPD with top candidate Franziska Giffey and the Greens with top candidate Bettina Jarasch are together at the top.
In the meantime, however, both ZDF and RBB see the social democrats ahead in projections.
None of the competitors for the office of governing mayor has yet derived a government contract from the figures.
"It's close tonight, but we're not finished yet," said Giffey. "We're at a point where everything can come out." Jarasch was "completely overwhelmed".
Giffey did not rule out a two-party coalition with the Greens.
"When we have the election result and know who is ahead, then you can talk about which coalitions are possible," she told the dpa.
So far, a red-red-green alliance ruled in Berlin, which would now have a clear majority.
How did this close result come about?
Who won votes from the competition?
The overview.
The SPD is dueling with the Greens to win the election. In a direct comparison, however, the Social Democrats are the clear losers. Because: On balance, the SPD lost 27,000 voters to direct competition. That emerges from the
analysis of the voter migration
by Infratest dimap. The election research institute calculates it on the basis of its own surveys, the preliminary final result and other official statistics. The values are a rough estimate of how many voters a party was able to hold compared to the previous election and how many emigrated or immigrated to and from other parties.
For Franziska Giffey's party, however, the loss to the Greens is not that significant, because it won a balance of 49,000 previous non-voters.
In addition, the
SPD
drew
some of the earlier votes from the CDU (19,000), the Left (11,000) and the AfD (11,000).
The
Greens
are the big winners.
At least when it comes to poaching voters from the competition.
Bettina Jarasch's party has not lost more voters to any party than it has gained from these parties.
The largest groups are former non-voters (36,000), left-wing voters (29,000) and SPD voters (27,000).
Even in comparison with the AfD, the Greens have a positive balance (5000).
The
CDU
lost many voters to the SPD (19,000) and the Greens (11,000), but secured the favor of some former AfD sympathizers (24,000) and also convinced non-voters (21,000).
Even the
left
managed to remove 11,000 votes from the AfD.
Otherwise, the party of top candidate Klaus Lederer lost voters to all other major parties.
In the overall bill, 29,000 leftists migrated to the Greens.
The
AfD
experienced a pitch-black day and lost around half of its votes from 2016. This is also reflected in the voter migration.
On balance, the AfD lost more voters to each party than it won back.
20,000 votes went to parties that are not represented in the House of Representatives.
The big voter migration did not take place in the
FDP
.
The biggest gains came from the CDU (7000) and AfD (7000), only the Greens lost the Liberal voters (3000)
The voter turnout was 76 percent, compared to 66.9 percent in 2016.
And this despite the fact that long queues formed at the polling stations and some of them had even closed in the meantime.
The Greens for the young, the SPD for the old
If you look at the
age of the voters
, one thing is particularly noticeable: the bars of the SPD and the Greens run in opposite directions, so to speak.
While the Greens are clearly the strongest force in all groups up to the age of 44, the SPD can rely on its older electorate.
Among the Berliners who are over 70 years old, the Social Democrats came to a whopping 3 ^ 7 percent.
Out of this group, the Greens received only nine percent of the trust.
Such great differences by age group cannot be seen in the Left, the FDP and the AfD.
Only the numbers of the CDU are similar to those of the SPD, the Christian Democrats hardly score with younger voters, and their core electorate is in the older groups.
There is hardly any
gender-specific voting behavior
to be observed
in Berlin
.
Women are more likely to vote for the Greens than men, but the difference is minimal at four percentage points.
The percentages are also balanced with the other parties.
Only the FDP and AfD show that they are more likely to be elected by men than women.
The analysis of the
level
of
education of voters
gives a clear picture, especially for the SPD and the Greens.
The Social Democrats still seem to convince many of the city's workers.
34 percent of people with a simple education voted for the SPD.
A peak value at which no other party can compete.
The CDU in second place comes to 19 percent.
The Greens do poorly in the group with 3 percent.
On the other hand, it is obvious that the Greens primarily convinced people with a high level of education.
In this group, the party of top candidate Jarasch received 27 percent, significantly more than any other party.
The SPD came in second best with 19 percent.
According to the projections, the SPD is just ahead of the Union in the Bundestag election.
The data analysis on voter migration in the federal government can be found here.
