The corona numbers in Germany are increasing dramatically.
The number of new infections has doubled again in one week.
When evaluating the numbers, however, there are several aspects to consider.
The number of corona cases in Germany is increasing rapidly.
The R-value * was 1.39 on Sunday evening (October 25).
The second
wave
* seems unstoppable.
The new infections reported on Monday also confirm the rapidly increasing trend.
There are several aspects to consider when evaluating the numbers.
This ticker is updated continuously.
Update from October 26, 2020, 2:23 p.m.:
Chancellor Angela Merkel will again discuss the worsening development of the
corona pandemic
with the Prime Minister in a video conference next Wednesday
.
Government spokesman Steffen Seibert announced this on Monday in Berlin.
Seibert emphasized that there was a serious development going on.
Bavaria's Prime Minister
Markus Söder
again emphasized the seriousness of the situation.
The CSU politician sees the fight against Corona in a crucial week.
"I do believe that it is pretty serious now, and that everyone has to make it clear again what it is about," said Söder on Monday at the Munich Media Days with a view to the next Prime Minister's Conference in a few days.
"This is the decision week."
Update from October 26th, 1:22 p.m.:
The coronavirus numbers are still rising particularly rapidly in North Rhine-Westphalia.
Only three regions have not yet been declared a risk area there.
In Bavaria, too, there are no signs of a positive development in the infection rate despite tightened measures.
Corona in Germany: clinics are again announcing postponement of non-urgent operations
Update from October 26, 11:54 a.m.:
Once again, the corona pandemic seems to have serious effects on ongoing hospital operations: In view of the increasing number of infections, the clinics in Germany are preparing
to postpone operations that can be
planned in many places
.
It is to be expected that "non-emergency interventions in particularly polluted regions and hospitals will have to be postponed again," said the managing director of the German Hospital Society, Georg Baum, of the "Augsburger Allgemeine" on Monday.
Baum called the rapidly increasing number of new infections "worrying".
"We know from spring that these new infections inevitably result in inpatient treatment cases."
At that time, every seventh corona infected person had to be treated as an inpatient in the hospital with a delayed interval in the course of the illness.
Corona in Germany: Beds in hospitals should be kept free again
In addition, it must be expected that a certain number of
beds
will have to be
kept free
.
"Unlike in spring, however, there will be no widespread and uncoordinated lockdown," added Baum.
In particular, the supra-regional supply of large clinics for important interventions should be guaranteed.
How much the situation has worsened again is shown, for example, by a corona outbreak in a hospital in the Bavarian district of Schongau *.
Coronavirus: Number of patients in German intensive care units tripled since the beginning of October
According to Baum, the number of
corona patients in intensive care units
has
more than
tripled
from 373 to 1296
since the
beginning of October
.
578 of these patients required ventilation at the weekend.
Accordingly, 8400 of the more than 30,000 intensive care beds are currently free.
The hospital
society
sees the
shortage of nursing staff
as a central problem
.
The clinics therefore need "maximum flexibility" in staffing.
Baum demanded that the new care lower limits planned by the federal government should not be started from January.
Corona in Germany: Merkel's Christmas forecast much too low?
Statistician warns against misjudgment
Update from October 26th, 8.55 a.m.:
When
Angela Merkel
warned at the end of September that
Germany
could have
20,000
new infections
per day
at Christmas
, her statement was dismissed by some critics as scare tactics.
However, the developments of the past week give the impression that the Chancellor could have made a more
conservative estimate
.
As
reported
by Die
Welt
, the Chancellor's forecast assumes a daily increase in the
7-day incidence
of 2.786 percent.
In fact, however, the growth is significantly higher.
If the incidence continued to develop in this way, well over 20,000 new infections every day would be possible for Christmas.
The Merkel scenario from September 28th - 19,200 # Corona cases / day at Christmas - implicitly assumed a daily growth of the 7-day average of 2.786%.
But today the 7-day average is already 2.6x as high as anticipated in the Merkel scenario (10,224 vs 4009).
: embarrassed: @world pic.twitter.com/2lRZVJZi3Z
- Olaf Gersemann (@OlafGersemann) October 26, 2020
Corona in Germany: Merkel forecast still too low?
Statistician warns against misjudgment
The
statistician
Katharina Schüller also calculated
the possible daily
new infections
for Christmas
for
focus.de
in the past few weeks
and comes to a similar result.
With an assumed
reproduction number
of 1.1, there would be around 13,000 new infections per day in Germany at Christmas.
However, with an
R value
of 1.2, approx. 64,000 new infections would be reached at Christmas.
The explanation for this: exponential growth.
The
RKI
gave a reproduction number of 1.39 for Germany on Sunday.
However, this is
only a calculation example under laboratory conditions
, which is difficult to apply to reality.
“With the
forecast
calculations
we are
assuming that everything will continue as before.
But if we
actually saw
such high
numbers of cases
, it cannot be assumed that politicians will stand by and stand by, ”emphasizes Schüller.
Much more, the bill should clarify how quickly the
pandemic
could progress.
And the federal states have already tightened their corona measures, which should slow down the spread of corona.
In Munich, for example, stricter measures follow again due to the unstoppable increase in new infections *.
Corona in Germany: RKI reports 8,685 new infections
Update from October 26th,
6.30 a.m
.:
On Sunday,
8,685
new infections
with the novel
Sars-CoV-2 coronavirus
were registered in
Germany
.
The
Robert Koch Institute
announced this early Monday morning.
The
infection numbers reported
by the
RKI
on Monday are skewed, however, because not all health authorities
pass
their statistics on new infections directly to the
infectious diseases
authorities at the weekend
.
However, the 8,685
new infections
can be classified
in relation to the previous week.
Last Monday, 4,325 new registered
corona infections
were reported - less than half.
Since the beginning of the
pandemic
, there have been 437,866 cases of
corona infection
in Germany that have been reported
to the
health department
.
Coronavirus in Germany: RKI warns of "diffuse spread" in some districts
Update from October 25, 2:17 p.m
.: Germany has 401 districts and independent cities.
According to the current
RKI management report
(as a PDF) from Saturday, more than half of them are now considered
corona hotspots
: The
seven-day incidence
in them currently exceeds the
mark
of
50
cases per 100,000 inhabitants.
The nationwide value is now
68.4
- in the federal states of Berlin, Bremen, Hesse, North Rhine-Westphalia, Bavaria, and the Saarland it is currently even exceeded.
"In addition, there is an increasingly diffuse spread of
Sars-CoV-2
infections in the population
in numerous districts
, without the chains of
infection being
clearly traceable," writes the
Robert Koch Institute (RKI)
.
+
RKI President Lothar Wieler
© Tobias Schwarz / various sources / AF
Corona in Germany: Even on Sunday numbers well over 10,000 - Lauterbach with lockdown ultimatum
Update from October 25, 8:26 a.m
.: The corona forecast for Germany from
SPD *
health expert Karl Lauterbach
is bleak.
It refers talking to the
picture
editorial team here to the current urgent video appeal by
Chancellor Angela Merkel
* (CDU *) when he says: "If we do not succeed in the next two to three weeks, the
personal contacts
to limit, the numbers will have risen so much in a few weeks that we only have another
lockdown
. "
He received an objection in the video box
(behind the payment barrier),
however, from the other invited guests
Ingrid Hartges
, Dehoga managing director, and
Andreas Gassen
, head of statutory health insurance.
Lauterbach justified his assessment with the fact that so far there has been “no study on the risk of infection in hotels and restaurants” in Germany.
“In the past few days, the impression has arisen that the pandemic is mainly being fueled by private celebrations and large celebrations.
That was probably the case at times.
But that is no longer the case.
The virus is too widespread again for that, even among the elderly, "says the politician.
+
Karl Lauterbach (SPD) warns of non-compliance with the corona rules of a second lockdown in Germany.
© Jörg Carstensen / dpa
Update, October 25, 6.45 a.m.:
According to the official information from the
Robert Koch Institute
(RKI), the
health authorities
in
Germany
reported
11,176
new
corona infections
within one day
.
The number has
doubled
within a week
.
Last Sunday (October 18th) there were 5587 new infections.
Corona in Germany: infections doubled within a week - R value increases
The number is now significantly
lower
than the 14,714 new infections reported for Friday.
However, the officially reported numbers are always lower on Sundays.
On the one hand, because there is less
testing
on the weekends
, on the other hand, because not all health authorities present new figures on Sundays.
Thus,
compared
to Sunday, on Monday (October 26th) or Tuesday a
significant increase in
the number of new infections could be expected.
Since the beginning of
Corona pandemic
have therefore in Germany officially
429,181
proven with the
coronavirus
infected (Stand. 25.10., 12:00).
The number of
deaths
increased by
29
people
in the past 24 hours to reach
10,032.
According to the RKI,
the
R value
, which
depicts
the
infection rate
from about a week ago, increased slightly from 1.23 to
1.36.
Statistically speaking, 10 infected people infect a total of around 14 other people with the
virus
.
Corona in Germany: information from secret banks seeps through - politics with a gloomy forecast
First report
from October 24th:
Munich -
14,714 new infections
with the
coronavirus
were reported in Germany on Friday - record.
But that's probably not all.
As leaked from a secret video chat of the state chancellery heads of the federal states on Friday, politicians are expecting 20,000 infections per day in Germany in October or early November.
This is reported by the picture.
This would mean an additional increase of over 30 percent.
Stricter measures could then be adopted at the next Prime Minister's Conference on October 30th.
It is currently unclear what these are.
Schools and companies should remain open, so other areas would have to be restricted.
Coronavirus Germany: hotspot strategy unsuccessful?
Are there now nationwide measures?
As the newspaper further reports, the countries
are questioning
the
hotspot strategy
.
This strategy reacts regionally to the corona numbers.
The Prime Ministers agreed on this strategy on October 14th, and since then the corona numbers have assumed dramatic courses almost everywhere.
198 districts
exceeded
the
incidence value
of 50.
It is usually no longer possible to follow up on all cases, as is the case in Berlin.
The
7-day incidence is
over 100
in a total of 35 counties nationwide
, including districts of the capital.
In the case of the record circles, the value is beyond 200.
According to Schalte, the health authorities in many countries are at their limit.
The federal states are therefore also discussing the measure of using short-time working to follow up on contacts.
The possibility of
restricting
the follow-up to
risk groups is
also an option
.
+
The number of deaths in Germany related to Covid-19 has passed the 14,000 mark.
Photo: Arne Dedert / dpa
© Arne Dedert
It is therefore also unclear what is
really
driving
the
pandemic
.
It is not clear whether the main distribution channel is actually via private parties, as claimed by the Robert Koch Institute *.
In many cases, the authorities simply do not know how the virus spread.
(
cg)
* merkur.de is part of the Ippen network.
List of rubric lists: © FABRIZIO BENSCH / AFP