CDU Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet threatens a real disaster in the federal election in 2021.
Of all things, Olaf Scholz's SPD could help.
Munich / Berlin - Was Armin Laschet so sure?
The CDU's candidate for chancellor did not apply for a direct mandate for the German Bundestag.
Because: as a possible chancellor, he would not need one for his work in parliament.
The fact that the 60-year-old Rhinelander will really become chancellor is very questionable in view of the polls for the 2021 federal election this Sunday (September 26th).
Armin Laschet: CDU chancellor candidate threatens debacle in the federal election in 2021
An example: For more than a week, the polls in the “Politbarometer” of the ZDF have been stable.
The SPD with Chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz would get 25 percent of the vote, while the CDU and CSU together only got 22 percent.
That is very little for the Union's claim.
Even more: it could be really bitter for Laschet if the Aachen resident not only does not become chancellor.
But also, should he not even move into parliament.
The CDU boss was put in first place on the state list in North Rhine-Westphalia.
But: For example, the Berlin consulting firm Johanssen + Kretschmer (JK) wrote in a forecast for the federal election in 2021 that the CDU in NRW would probably win 37 of the 64 constituencies and therefore no candidate could move up via the state list.
This is where Olaf Scholz's SPD comes into play.
Bundestag election 2021: These are overhang seats and compensation seats
Federal Parliament election 2021
: Definition of overhang mandates and compensatory mandates
Surplus mandates
: If a party can send more candidates to the German Bundestag by winning first votes than it is entitled to based on the proportion of second votes in a federal state.
Compensatory
mandates: Overhang mandates are
compensated
by the allocation of additional seats in parliament to the extent that in the end the distribution of seats according to the ratio of the second votes is maintained.
Because: The same consulting firm is now forecasting in an update of its surveys that the CDU and the SPD will get 90 percent of all direct mandates, but together will not even get 50 percent of the two votes.
This leads to a record number of overhang mandates.
The result: More compensation mandates, which - as the name suggests - are intended to compensate for the overhang mandates.
In the video: CDU man Armin Laschet in the ARD election arena
Even more: Armin Laschet would still move into the German Bundestag through the said mandates - thanks to the expected strong SPD.
Of all things.
The mega-embarrassment would thus remain for the CDU chief.
After all, he had already announced that he would step down as Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia after the election.
Armin Laschet: CDU candidate for chancellor moves into the Bundestag thanks to the SPD
The many overhang and compensation mandates will meanwhile result in the largest Bundestag in history.
According to studies by Johanssen + Kretschmer (JK), the 20th Bundestag will currently have 823 members - that would be 114 seats more than in the previous Bundestag.
CDU man Laschet is probably among the elected officials.
Whether as a chancellor or a simple member of parliament.
(pm)
