FAX: The revised economic data of the Mainland shows a decline year-on-year, and the official accusation has turned from negative to positive

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Written by: Zhang Jiamin

2020-10-30 15:46

Last update date: 2020-10-30 15:46

The mainland released the latest economic data last Monday (19th). Officials indicated that the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) in the first three quarters turned from negative to positive.

The fax agency reported that the fixed asset investment and retail sales of consumer goods for the first three quarters of this year showed a decline compared with the same period last year, which is different from the official point of negative change to positive.

The National Bureau of Statistics replied to the fax agency's inquiry, confirming that it had revised the data of the previous year, but did not update the previous public records after the revision, and also pointed out that the use of cross-year data for comparison was wrong.

However, some scholars have pointed out that they have not heard of the inability to compare the data across the year, and that if revisions are made to affect the base, they can be compared as long as the data is updated.

According to figures from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first three quarters of this year, national fixed asset investment in the Mainland was RMB 43.65 trillion, up 0.8% year-on-year, marking the first time this year from negative to positive.

However, looking at the data released last year, the fixed asset investment in the first three quarters of last year was 46.12 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3% this year.

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The fax agency reported that, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national fixed asset investment in the first three quarters of this year was 43.65 trillion yuan, up 0.8% year-on-year, marking the first time this year from negative to positive.

However, looking at the data released last year, the fixed asset investment in the first three quarters of last year was 46.12 trillion yuan. This year's figure should fall by 247 million yuan, and this year's decline is 5.3%.

The national fixed asset investment figure announced in December last year was 55.15 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.4% year-on-year. However, if the figure is compared with the 63.56 trillion yuan announced the previous year, it is down by 13.2%. The gap between the two is as high as 18 %.

The total retail sales of consumer goods fell 0.7%

In addition, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the total retail sales of consumer goods in the first three quarters of this year was 27.33 trillion yuan, a decrease of 7.2% from the same period last year.

However, according to the figures released in October last year, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the first three quarters of last year was 29.67 trillion yuan. This year, the year-on-year decline was 7.9%, which is 0.7% worse than the official figure.

According to the figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2018, the total retail sales of consumer goods for the year were 38.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 9% year-on-year.

In 2017, the total amount for the year was 36.63 trillion yuan, and the year-on-year increase should be 4%.

According to figures from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first three quarters of this year, national fixed-asset investment in the Mainland was RMB 43.65 trillion, up 0.8% year-on-year, marking the first time this year from negative to positive.

However, looking at the data released last year, the fixed asset investment in the first three quarters of last year was 46.12 trillion yuan. This year's figure should fall by 247 million yuan, and this year's decline is 5.3%.

(Fax company drawing)

Only state that the revised notes have not updated the old data

The announcements made by the National Bureau of Statistics this year in the national fixed asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods indicate that the data for 2019 has been revised.

The website of the National Bureau of Statistics currently only contains the national fixed asset investment figures as early as 2011. Similar amendment notes for the past 9 years appeared in the announcements issued from January to September this year, the whole year of 2019 and December 2018.

As for the total retail sales of consumer goods, similar revised notes also appeared in 2018 and 2015.

In the announcement at that time, there was also a note stating that the data of the previous year had been revised. "The total retail sales of consumer goods in the same period last year were revised based on the results of the third national agricultural census and relevant system regulations, and the growth rate was calculated on a comparable basis."

When the official proposed the rate of change in the new data, the past data was not updated.

Searching for relevant economic data on the National Bureau of Statistics website, the current version is still the data before the revision.

The cumulative total of retail sales of consumer goods announced in 2019 was 41.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 127.1% compared to 18.12 trillion yuan in 2011. Based on the same year-on-year growth announced by the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative increase in 9 years was nearly 129.5%, the gap between the two is 2.4%.

(Fax company drawing)

The fax agency calculated the increase based on the unrevised total value announced by the government from 2011 to 2019, and calculated the annual increase announced by the government every year, and found that in terms of fixed asset investment, the cumulative total announced in 2019 was 55.15 trillion yuan. Compared with the 30.19 trillion yuan in 2011, an increase of nearly 83%, but based on the year-on-year growth announced by the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative increase in 9 years has reached 137%, which is a 54% difference between the two.

As for the retail sales of consumer goods, the cumulative total announced in 2019 was 41.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 127.1% compared to 18.12 trillion yuan in 2011, and the 9-year cumulative increase based on the same year-on-year growth announced by the National Bureau of Statistics Nearly 129.5%, the gap between the two is 2.4%.

However, taking the 2018 data alone, the revised increase was 5% higher than the pre-revised increase, while the increase in 2015 was 4% lower, and the data offset each other.

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The National Bureau of Statistics replied to the "Fax Agency" query, stating that the comparison of cross-year numbers was wrong.

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Scholars: You cannot compare data across the year without hearing

The National Bureau of Statistics replied to the fax agency's inquiry, saying that the growth rate listed in the database was revised data, and the absolute amount (total value) was not updated after the revision, and admitted that the current absolute amount and the increase rate do not correspond. Only one year can be compared with the previous year, not the previous year.

The National Bureau of Statistics stated that it is wrong to use relevant materials for comparison across years when citing relevant materials from outside, including research institutions.

The National Bureau of Statistics pointed out that the economic census is tantamount to re-checking the data. In previous years, the data was initially estimated and adjusted again during the census, and it emphasized that the adjusted data after the check most accurately reflect the economic situation of the year.

Liang Tianzhuo, the current associate professor of the Department of Economics at Wake Forest University in the United States and a member of the Center for Economic Research of the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies, CUHK, said that unheard data cannot be compared across the years. He pointed out that if the statistical scope and statistical methods are changed during the revision process, the bases of the two numbers will be different. , You can compare as long as you update the relevant data.

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