Focus: Controversial party party, remodeling personnel, reconstitution, dissolution, Tokyo governor election

Takemoto Nobun

[Tokyo 11th Reuters]-Liberal Democratic Party officials announced on the 11th and the reshuffle of the cabinet were appealing to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's strong enthusiasm for reforming the Constitution. In light of this, the ruling party will soon disband the House of Representatives and four prime ministers. The successor of Toshihiro Nikai, who was also the subject of change within the party, may leave a lump in the party, such as in response to the Tokyo Governor's election, and between party leaders over constitutional revision and early dissolution However, there is a temperature difference and it seems to cast a shadow on the administration of the future.

<Personnel that rewards sweaty people>

Mr. Koichi Sugata, the Secretary-General of the Ministry of Education, was the Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. The appointment of a member close to the prime minister is conspicuous. The second floor secretary-general expressed at the conference that "the party officer's personnel and the cabinet reshuffle are firmly reflected in the idea of ​​Prime Minister Abe." It is seen by many ruling party officials as "Persons who sweat for the prime minister" (around executives).

Prime Minister Abe emphasized at the extraordinary general affairs meeting on the 11th that he must respond firmly to the consignments he received from the public after he was elected to the upper house in July. Emphasizing the willingness to move forward with policy management, supported by the public. “The prime minister has calculated his ideal position as it may be the last cabinet remodeling after the 2021 (Governor of the Party) office,” he said. It is.

Early dissolution of the House of Representatives is also in view. Mr. Shimomura, who is close to him, was appointed as the chairman of the selection committee, saying, “A message that is one step closer to the early dissolution. Mr. Shinjiro Koizumi's appointment in the cabinet seems to be “Abe's strategy that emphasizes elections” (the ruling party).

Within the ruling party, the dissolution of the House of Representatives in November will be whispered at the earliest, given the consumption tax increase in October. The term of office of the House of Representatives is the fall of 2021, the first half of 20 years is difficult at the Tokyo Olympics, and the economic situation is unclear after the Olympics. If the House of Representatives wins a certain level of victory, Prime Minister Abe's “4 supporters” voice may increase within the party.

The second floor secretary-general, who has already expressed his support for Prime Minister Abe's four elections, said, “If President Abe has made such a decision, he will probably support the party in a way that is in line with the public's wishes. "I emphasized again.

<"Fluctuation factor" for party officer personnel>

However, there are many disputes over the dissolution and reform of the LDP. After the consumption tax hike, a certain decrease in demand is unavoidable, saying "Dissolution within the year is not realistic" (mid-level ruling party), "It is difficult to proceed with the constitutional revision discussion until next year's ordinary parliament" (around executives) There are correspondingly. Mr. Fumio Kishida, the chairman of the political survey, said at the conference on the 11th that “the people will discuss the constitution and create a steady stream of amendments to the constitution”, but pointed out that the constitution is a matter of the people. In public opinion surveys, he took the stance of taking time if necessary for the constitutional amendment that is not of high public interest.

Rikkyo University's Professor Hiroyoshi Sunagawa (media theory) said, “The constitutional amendment is difficult in practice, and once it is rejected by a referendum, it may not be possible to discuss it again. "It may be sometime next year."

Party officers also have turbulence. The second floor secretary-general has been in office for three years, and the theory of substitution has spread within the Liberal Democratic Party because of his age. Especially for the Tokyo governor's election scheduled for summer next year, Mr. Koike, who has clarified his attitude to support Governor Yuriko Koike, who is aiming for re-election, jumped out of the Liberal Democratic Party and opposed Prime Minister Abe in the House of Representatives in 2017. It is a headache for many LDP officials who are emotionally repelled.

“There is a need to change the secretary by the governor's election next year” (executives), and even though this time around the personnel, “the chief of the secretary is Mr. Yiwei Wei and the secretary is Katsunobu Kato” There was a time when the scenario was whispered extensively.

Mr. Nifuka continued to be “a result of his strong will” (executives), but Prime Minister Abe and Taro Aso were appointed as the secretary general of Mr. Tsuji. Some have speculated that there was also a meaning of the “tension system” (government officials).

* The extra characters in the seventh paragraph of the text have been deleted.

(Editor: Shinichi Uchida)