The polls for the federal election indicate a neck-and-neck race.
What will happen to Armin Laschet if the CDU leader should lose?
There are several scenarios.
Munich - On Sunday (September 26th *), citizens will elect the members of the German Bundestag as part of the general election.
These in turn vote on the future chancellor.
After 16 years, Angela Merkel will no longer run.
Her successor will be decided between CDU boss Armin Laschet, Olaf Scholz (SPD) and Annalena Baerbock (Alliance 90 / The Greens).
On Friday the
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) published
an Allensbach survey.
Result of the survey *: The Laschet CDU is only one percentage point behind the SPD with 25 percent.
In the trend barometer of RTL and ntv, the SPD remains the strongest force with 25 percent, while the Union was a little more clearly behind in this survey - at 22 percent.
It still remains exciting.
But if the CDU / CSU should lose, what will happen next for Armin Laschet?
Bundestag election: Laschet wants to go to Berlin even if he is defeated
Some time ago, the CDU boss announced that he would move to Berlin even in the event of a defeat.
The 60-year-old had ruled out a return to the Düsseldorf State Chancellery as head of government of North Rhine-Westphalia.
Laschet had not yet decided whether he wanted to become the leader of the opposition in the Bundestag in the event of an election defeat.
"I'm running to win the election," he made
clear
to the
FAZ
.
But does the NRW Prime Minister expect a political disaster, for example if he does not even move into the Bundestag as a member of the Bundestag?
Armin Laschet: "My place is in Berlin after the federal elections"
Laschet waives a possible direct mandate for parliament - with consequences?
Because: Laschet is on CDU list number one in NRW. He had waived a possible direct mandate for the German parliament. As Federal Chancellor, he does not necessarily have to be a Member of Parliament elected at the same time. But there are two catches. First: if Laschet does not become chancellor. Second, in North Rhine-Westphalia, the CDU's state list will probably be left out. Because, the party is likely to win 37 of the 64 constituencies in North Rhine-Westphalia - and thus no MPs would move up on the state list. This is what the Berlin consultancy Johanssen + Kretschmer (JK) wrote in a forecast for the federal election in 2021.
According to the paper, the Union's list places will not have their usual effect.
Because of the high proportion of direct mandates won, there will be plenty of overhang mandates.
Perhaps with the result that it will be a parliament without a Laschet?
In the event of a Laschet defeat: will he become parliamentary group leader?
If the Union does not make it into government, the parliamentary group chairmanship in the Bundestag would probably be the most important position within the Union.
Laschet had left it open as to whether the role of opposition leader was an option for him (see above).
But would a decimated CDU parliamentary group even vote for the person who, after 16 years in power, gave the Union a painful defeat?
The
Tagesschau
describes this as “questionable.” Possible candidates for this position would be Friedrich Merz and Jens Spahn as well as the current parliamentary group leader Ralph Brinkhaus.
As the
Tagesspiegel
writes, Laschet, as Union parliamentary group leader, is unlikely to be enforceable in the event of a defeat, if it is enough for the Union only for the opposition.
(Scholz or Laschet? You can get the latest forecasts and first results in our politics newsletter.)
What happens in the event of an election defeat?
Will Laschet remain CDU boss?
"It is very clear that the CDU is on the threshold of losing its status as a people's party forever," said party researcher Oskar Niedermayer of the newspaper.
And further: "I suspect that you need a new party leader if Armin Laschet leads the Union into the opposition."
In the event of an election defeat: will Laschet become a minister or even vice-chancellor?
One scenario would be a ministerial office and possibly even the post of Vice Chancellor, as
reported by
the
Tagesschau
.
However, only if Laschet succeeds with a good result in leading the CDU as a junior partner into a coalition.
But second place behind the SPD would be a major defeat after 16 years in power.
The resentment in the Union could become so great and discharge under pressure on Laschet to forego joining the government, as the
Tagesschau
further reports.
Wild speculation about possible election defeat: is Laschet withdrawing to the Vatican?
The
WDR
recently even put wild speculation in the room.
Laschet could possibly withdraw completely from politics after a defeat and go to the Vatican.
Federal Minister of Education Anette Schavan (CDU) went there as ambassador after she had lost her post due to plagiarism.
After all, Lachet has already visited the Pope several times, most recently in September last year.
He was also editor-in-chief of the
KirchenZeitung
until 1994
.
A retreat to the Vatican would therefore possibly be a return to his professional beginnings.
(came)
