Juan Manuel Barca
05/16/2021 22:06
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 05/16/2021 10:06 PM
Martín Guzmán returned "renewed"
from the European tour, as they say in his surroundings and will seek to take advantage of it to accelerate the negotiations with the IMF.
For these hours, the Minister of Economy is focused on leaving behind the inmates that made him see the abyss and will advance
as soon as possible in a new scheme with the Fund for the next 10 years.
In the Casa Rosada they believe that the moment is optimal after the breath of air that the trip meant.
The first "achievement"
, they say, was to have achieved
that the Paris Club does not declare the default
. Argentina must pay US $ 2.4 billion before May 31 with a grace period until July 31, but there are still "technical" issues to be resolved.
Although the IMF agreed to evaluate the claim for the US $ 900 million that the surcharges represent and European leaders gave signs of support, Guzmán's agenda remains fraught with challenges.
His objective now is to initiate consultations on Article IV
as a preliminary step to closing a new program with the agency and renegotiating the US $ 44,500 million debt.
This past week we had a valuable tour led by our President @alferdez, who helps us to continue building the support and international consensus necessary to solve the debt problems that our Argentina was led to.
pic.twitter.com/GODUGENvlR
- Martín Guzmán (@Martin_M_Guzman) May 17, 2021
The mechanism allows the agency to
supervise exchange, monetary, fiscal and financial variables
.
The economy minister had promised to move down that lane in February 2020 in a meeting with the head of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva.
But the outbreak of the pandemic and the discussion with private bondholders buried the negotiations.
That concession is not without new tensions.
Furthermore, the Government assumes that the ruling party itself could
boycott the initiative
.
Fernández and Guzmán experienced it firsthand when, during the tour, statements and projects promoted by Kichnerism were known to limit the negotiation with the Fund and the rate increase already agreed upon.
But
Guzmán is going to defend his plan to the letter
.
"He came back strengthened," they say in La Rosada.
Otherwise, the risk is that the Paris Club will
not agree to extend the deadlines.
This formula, according to official sources, will make it easier to advance in a facility agreement extended for 10 years and resume
payments only in the second half of 2025
.
That is the expectation.
If this roadmap is agreed, the Fernández administration will postpone the nearly
US $ 7 billion
in maturities this year to the agencies and the remainder throughout his term. The scenario, on the other hand, will be complicated
from 2025
, since
US $ 9,000 million per year will have
to be
paid
to the Fund
and US $ 8,000 million
per year to private bondholders, including interest.
Within this package, it
will be key to define the disbursements
that Argentina will have to make
once the payment schedule is resumed
. Until such time and as far as possible, the BCRA will continue to accumulate reserves and the Treasury will finance itself in the local market. With the foreign exchange for soybeans, and the dollar and spending trampled, there would be room to achieve a fiscal deficit of 4.2%.
Another item negotiated by the Executive is the
inclusion of a review clause
, whereby in the event of any change in the Fund's statute or in the terms of the agreement during the term thereof, the negotiation is reopened.
To do this, Guzmán will seek to reach political agreements after his failed attempt to fire Undersecretary of Energy, Federico Basualdo.
In La Rosada they know that it is an electoral year and they understand that
the attacks against the minister were only "corrective
.
"
Your mission will be to surf the internal.
Precisely, Kirchnerism requires an agreement with the Fund for more than 10 years and with a rate cut.
The other inescapable battle is inflation, a variable that hits income and heats up the fight for votes.
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