IMF: Italy better than Germany, GDP + 4.9% in 2021

The IMF revises Italy's growth estimates for 2021 and 2022 upwards. After the contraction of 8.9% in 2020, the GDP of Italy is expected to grow this year by 4.9%, or 0, 7 percentage points higher than the + 4.2% expected in April. In 2022, the Italian economy is expected to grow 4.2%, 0.6 percentage points more than the April forecasts. Italy thus runs more than Germany, whose GDP is expected to grow by 3.6% this year and by 4.1% next.

Italian public debt is expected to reach 157.8% of GDP in 2021, while the deficit is estimated at 11.1%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points compared to the 8.8% forecast in April.

The United States is racing and the IMF revises world growth upwards for 2022. The global economy is expected to grow by 6% this year, an estimate unchanged from April. In 2022, on the other hand, growth was revised upwards by 0.5 percentage points to + 4.9% with the run of the USA. The US is expected to grow by 7% this year, 0.6 percentage points over April's estimates, and 4.9% in 2022, or 1.4 percentage points higher than in April.

The risks to the global economic recovery are to the downside even if more widespread access to vaccines could improve the outlook. "The emergence of highly contagious new variants could derail the recovery and wipe out $ 4.5 trillion from GDP by 2025". The IMF affirms it. "Rapid multilateral action is needed to access vaccines. This could save lives and add billions of dollars to global economic growth," points out the Fund's chief economist, Gita Gopinath.