Latino voters prefer that the Democrats win in November, but the Republican Party cuts their disadvantage

By Mark Murray

With less than six weeks to go before the midterm elections on November 8, Democrats lead Republicans by more than 20 percentage points in voting intentions among Latinos, but that advantage has decreased compared to past elections, according to a new survey. National Telemundo News and NBC News.

This poll reveals that Hispanic voters are essentially divided on the president, Joe Biden, with

and 45% disapproving.  

It also shows that these voters overwhelmingly side with the Democrats on issues such as abortion, health care, and addressing the concerns of the Hispanic community.

But it also illustrates how they support Republicans on issues of violence and the economy.  

[Inflation is the most important thing for Latinos in the election, followed by access to abortion, according to a survey]

These are the main results of the survey, carried out across the country from September 17 to 26 to 1,000 registered Latino voters, in English (75%) and in Spanish (25%), to understand this key electorate, especially after the advance Republican in this sector in the presidential election.

They were contacted by landline, cell phone and text message;

the margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.1%.

Beto O'Rourke leads Greg Abbott among Latinos (who distance themselves from other Democrats)

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[Latinos support teaching gender identity in schools]

“Although Latinos continue to lean Democratic and prefer that this party control Congress, Republicans have a higher share of the vote than on previous occasions,” said Democratic pollster Aileen Cardona-Arroyo, of Hart Research Associates, who conducted this poll with Republican pollster Bill McInturff and his team at Public Opinion Strategies. 

McInturff added, “Being below 20 points is much better [for Republicans] than being below 40,” referring to previous NBC/Telemundo studies of Latino voters. 

Also notable in this survey are the differences between men and women, between Democrats and Republicans, between Catholics and non-Catholics, and between residents of California and Florida and Texas. 

“Latinos are an incredibly diverse community, there are many groups, not just one Latino voter,” Cardona-Arroyo said.

• What is your preference for the outcome of the congressional elections this November?

54% of Latino voters say they prefer Democrats to control Congress after the November elections, compared to 33% who opt for Republicans. 

In green: Congress controlled by the Republican Party.

In yellow: Congress controlled by the Democratic Party.

In red: undecided. Graphic: Alexandra Marquez / Source: NBC News/Telemundo

That 21-point Democratic lead is lower than previous Noticias Telemundo and NBC News polls of Latino voters in October 2020 (when it was 26 points), November 2018 (34 points), October 2016 (38 points) and October 2020. 2012 (42 points). 

California Latinos (D+30), Latina women (D+29), and Catholic Latinos (D+27) are more likely to prefer Democratic control of Congress than Florida Latinos (D+7), men Latinos (D+9) and non-Catholic Latinos (D+15). 

“Margins matter,” Cardona-Arroyo said.

Joe Biden's low popularity affects his chances if he decides to run for re-election in 2024

Sept.

26, 202200:50

• Do you approve or disapprove of the president's job?

51% of Latino voters surveyed say they approve of the job of the president, Joe Biden, compared to 45% who disapprove. 

Graphic: Alexandra Marquez / Source: NBC News/Telemundo

But there are also differences: Latino Catholics, Latino women, and older Latinos support Biden more than non-Catholic Latinos, Latino men, and younger Latinos. 

Biden also gets lower marks on some issues: just 49% approve of his handling of foreign policy, 42% approve of his immigration and border security policy, and 41% approve of his handling of the economy. 

49% approve of his foreign policy;

51% disapprove of its immigration policy;

54% disapprove of his management of the economy;

and 60% censor the cost of living. Alexandra Marquez / Source: NBC News Telemundo

When asked if Biden's economic policies have helped or hurt the economy, 33% say they have helped, 39% say they have hurt, and another 26% say they haven't made much of a difference.

Democrats vs.

Republicans

Latino voters believe Democrats do a better job on abortion (by a 50% to 23% margin), Hispanic community concerns (49% to 23%), protecting democracy (48% to 28%) and health care (46% to 21%). 

However, they prefer Republicans on the economy (38% to 34%), border security (36%-33%) and crime (36%-28%).

• Which party will manage better in the following issues?

Latino opinion on abortion, Hispanic community concerns, protecting democracy, health care, the economy, border security and crime. Source: NBC News/ Telemundo

When asked what was the most important problem facing the country, 23% answered that the cost of living;

20% threats to democracy;

17% employment and the economy;

and 11% immigration and the situation at the border. 

In the national poll conducted by NBC News in September among all voters, the priorities were threats to democracy (20%);

the cost of living (18%);

employment and the economy (16%);

and immigration and situation at the border (12%).

• On abortion and immigration

Most Latino voters (54%) disapprove of the Supreme Court's decision to strike down constitutional protection of the right to abortion, compared to 37% who approve.

It is similar to the result of the NBC News poll of all voters (61% vs. 37%).

But there are significant divisions by party and religion.

75% of Latino Democrats disapprove of the decision, compared to 42% of independents and 22% of Republicans.

By religion, 53% of Catholics disapprove of the decision, compared to 59% of Latino evangelical Christians who approve.

Many Latinos could vote in November thinking about their pockets (but also about the right to abortion)

Sept.

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On immigration, 65% of Latino voters believe that asylum seekers should be admitted at the border, compared to 31% who prefer that they be immediately returned to their countries of origin.

By party, 83% of Latino Democrats are in favor of being allowed to apply for asylum;

64% of Republican Latinos believe they should be returned to their countries.