Natalia Muscatelli
04/14/2021 5:45 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 04/15/2021 11:11 AM
Today, the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) is going to disseminate the evolution of
inflation for March
.
It is discounted that the result will be higher than 4% since the Minister of Economy Martín Guzmán announced -from Italy, in the framework of a tour of various European countries- that it
will be the highest record of the year and that it will decrease from of April.
In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI)
rose 4% and in February, 3.6%
.
Guzmán participated in the meeting, which was led by the Chief of Cabinet, Santiago Cafiero, virtually.
Regarding inflation, he pointed out: "there are conjunctural circumstances that have been affecting prices, including
food inflation, which is a problem in the world and in particular, in this pandemic,
" said the head of the Palacio de Hacienda. also that these conjunctural situations "are added behaviors that must be corrected," since "some companies" continue to "see behaviors that are based on an expectation of higher inflation," he said.
The private consultancies that turn their forecasts into the
Market Expectations Survey (REM) of the Central Bank, warned an inflation of 3.9% for March
, and 46% for the whole year.
This forecast implies a decrease of 2.1 points compared to the previous projection.
As for
April, the consultants estimated a rise of 3.4%,
with "a downward trajectory" for the coming months in line with the expectations of Minister Guzman.
If the analysts' projection is confirmed, March would be the sixth consecutive month in which retail inflation is above 3%.
With which, the first quarter of the year would close with an accumulated rate of between 10% and 12%, on an annual guideline projected in the Budget of 29%.
Something that economists already rule out.
According to the calculations of the economist Marina Dal Poggetto, of the Eco Go consultancy, the expected rise in prices in March is
4.2%.
Meanwhile, the Orlando Ferreres consultancy estimated the rise at
4.1%
due to pressure from the
Education and Equipment and home operation items.
Thus, the interannual advance of inflation would be in the order of 36.6%, according to this analysis.
However, other consulting firms have lower estimates: Ecolatina forecasts
3.7%
for example, with a total rise of 12% in the first quarter.
According to the calculation of the economist Pablo Goldin, director of the
MacroView
consultancy,
the rise in March was 3.9%
and explains: “In March there was a general movement in prices, especially in the last week:
food that has been moving a lot had an
impact
, college fees, prepaid and other services
that tend to explain this seasonally high month in terms of inflation. "
According to the analyst, all free prices (which are little more than half the prices of the economy) move around 5 or 6% per month and the controlled ones, around "2 something", he says.
"With the exception of gasoline, which has controlled prices but at the same time they are moving at a rate of 5% per month like the free ones."
Among all the items,
the foods of the basic basket with which the Government is most kept awake
.
For this reason, the officials of the Secretary of Commerce are focusing all their artillery on containing these increases.
In this sense, Cafiero confirmed that the inspectors of the Federal Administration of Public Revenues
(AFIP) will participate "in the control of compliance with Maximum Prices."
The official program criticized by the industry since it cannot adjust the prices of the products according to how its own production costs rise.
According to the consulting firm LCG, which monitors food prices in supermarkets every week, the average monthly inflation in
the food and beverage index was 4% in the last four weeks of March
and leaves a significant drag for April.
Although official estimates point to an inflationary decompression starting this month, analysts are somewhat skeptical: "The Government is pointing to inflation in April starting at 2% but it will not achieve it, it will be more similar to 3.5% ", according to Goldin.
And he believes that the slowdown that officials are pursuing "would only happen for the month of May."
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