10/23/2020 10:27 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 10/23/2020 10:27 PM
Despite the fact that the parallel dollar and the financial ones seem to have no ceiling and the official measures do not stop the increase in the exchange rate gap, the Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, again assured this Friday in different interviews that the Government will not devalue and that it will maintain "Exchange policy" of the official exchange rate.
"No," was the
emphatic response
of the minister when asked in media appearances during the day about whether the official dollar will register an abrupt jump.
On Thursday the Central Bank released the wholesale exchange rate 33 cents, more than in previous rounds.
"Devaluing is not the solution because it
leads to more inflation and erodes purchasing power
."
Since September 15, when the Central Bank deepened the exchange rate hold, alternative dollars have not stopped rising without reaching their ceiling.
This Friday the price of the blue dollar closed at $ 195, with
a gap of 149.5%
, while the cash with liquidation fell to $ 168.83, falling 6.8%, on a day where the brokerage firms did not operate by calls from the Government.
Despite the volatility and exchange noise, Guzmán reiterated: "We are going to continue with the rate of depreciation of the peso, going hand in hand with inflation, in a process that seeks to gradually reduce inflation."
In any case, the minister admitted that "devaluation expectations indirectly
affect the economy
" and that, therefore, they aim to "stabilize the gap and then lower it."
“We have a situation of a very high exchange rate gap, but there is also a circumstance in which
we have a trade surplus, there is no payment of foreign debt
and, despite what is said, there is 41 billion dollars in reserve of the which the embedded deposits will be around 12 billion.
And there are capital controls, ”Guzmán explained.
Martín Guzmán with journalists Reynaldo Sietecase and Ernesto Tenembaum on radio Con Vos.
The Minister of Economy had a media raid on Friday.
According to the minister, these three reasons (trade surplus, low debt payment commitments and exchange controls), are what make the Ministry of Economy think that there will be no devaluation of the official exchange rate.
Guzmán admitted that the week was not easy.
“We are concerned about the gap.
It generates expectations of devaluation that are not conditional on the circumstances we face on the external front.
This combination of a trade surplus, low debt payments and exchange controls, allows us to
continue with the exchange policy for the official exchange rate,
which is what matters for prices and the macroeconomy ”, he insisted.
The week started with Guzmán announcing measures to calm the dollar with liquidation.
"The blue is less important than the CCL (counted with liqui), he said yesterday this Friday.
Monday's announcements were precisely to calm that financial dollar.
After two weeks where the measures had been mainly monetary, taken from the Central Bank (increases in the repo rate and in subsidized financing and the decrease in the LELIQs rate), this time measures related to the operation in the stock market, where the drop in parking for 3 days stood out, the lifting of the prohibition to operate with non-residents and the announcement of a bond auction up to US $ 750 million aimed at releasing part of the pesos in the hands of funds from abroad.
These measures were encouraged by Guzmán's team to the detriment of those taken by Miguel Pesce, especially with the reinforcement of the stocks on September 15, which settled a difference with Guzmán.
The minister's measures, however, were unsuccessful
if the objective
was to calm the dollar counted with liquidation that rose $ 3.5 in the week.
“Prices move with the official dollar, not with the blue.
That has been happening, for 10 months that I see it.
I see the data.
Inflation goes hand in hand with the official exchange rate
.
The gap creates expectations that the officer can go anywhere.
Devaluing is not a solution, that leads to more inflation, ”Guzmán added.
The week closed with an increase in the blue dollar of $ 17, going from $ 178 to 195 pesos
.
It also ends with a more pressing situation for Minister Guzmán.
Close to the official they point out that last weekend he received an accolade from the President to coordinate the management of economic policy with a view to negotiating with the Monetary Fund.
One of the concerns of the agency is that the Ministry of Economy and the Central Bank do not agree with the measures or there are differences such as those that existed during Macri's management in the development of a program, in that case a stand by for 57,000 millions of dollars.
Guzmán was consulted on whether, as Clarín anticipated, Alberto Fernández gave him a deadline to stop the rise in the dollar.
And the minister did not confirm or rule it out.
"I'm not going to get into speculation.
The President marks the line, we work in a way that is totally doomed to stabilize the economy.
And we work under your leadership.
What do you mean by deadlines?
Every day we work on the path of stabilizing the economy and putting it on the path of recovery, ”he said.
According to the head of the Treasury portfolio, "today there is this peculiar situation in which there is a financial front with the characteristics that shows very strong instability, but at the same time, the real economy shows signs of recovery."
Guzmán said that the political rift "has an economic cost."
“A fractured society is a society that has a hard time having a quiet economy.
That matters a lot, of course.
Stabilizing ourselves and putting ourselves in an environment of economic tranquility is a collective task.
We are all on the same page, "he said.
