Damien Kantor
07/31/2021 1:00
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 07/31/2021 1:00 AM
The real estate market is facing a period of lack of sales, the volatility of the dollar and the shortage of mortgage loans.
It is a scenario that began to take shape in April 2018, with the first devaluation, and that has been consolidated until today.
The result is in sight: according to the consultancy firm Reporte Inmobiliario,
in the last two years, the average price of properties fell 26.8% in Capital, 32.9% in GBA and 39.5% in the interior of the country.
Experts say that the collapse in values of used homes was gradual and that new ones fell even more, thus the gap narrowed. “In 2016, the difference between the brand new square meter and the one used in Capital was 10%. In full euphoria of UVA credits, it reached 17% and
today it is 7%, average
”, emphasizes Daniel Bryn, head of Bryn Real State. In the market they wonder: did prices hit the bottom?
Although with nuances, in the sector they believe that it is not and that it
is very likely that they will continue to decline for various reasons
.
On the one hand, they distinguish that the values of brand new homes adapt faster to jumps in the exchange rate.
“Measured in blue dollars and due to the contraction in demand,
construction fell between 25 and 30%
.
It takes longer for the used one, ”says Damián Tabakman, president of the CEDU (the chamber of real estate developers).
Due to the lack of sales, the supply of properties is at its all-time highs.
According to Bryn,
in Capital there are 156,000 properties for sale, a record
: 114,000 apartments, 10,200 PH, 6,400 lots, 6,200 offices and 5,600 houses.
"The rest are garages, warehouses and premises," he lists.
The accumulation of stock, according to the Real Estate Monitor, a statistic prepared by Bryn himself, varies according to the area. In 2017, there were on average 3 properties for sale per block. "
Today we have 10 and in neighborhoods like Recoleta, Belgrano and Palermo, the average reaches 30,
" Bryn emphasizes. For this reason, he concludes that "prices are not going down." The head of RE / MAX Premium, Ariel Champanier, is more conclusive: "
There is no reason why prices should not continue to fall,
" he says.
The employer expresses his conviction in this regard. He argues that the gap with the new square meter narrowed because "
the used one is still expensive and because the cost of construction fell
" again, after the last rise in the price of blue. "In the real estate market - points out Champanier - the only currency that is worth is the dollar".
Unlike investors, whose rationale for selling lies in replacement cost, homeowners resist the idea of compromising on prices. At least in theory.
In the first half of 2021, the square meter used in Capital fell 4%
. “It is not a sudden change, but the trend will continue. The only way is for demand to move. The number of operations grew somewhat, but
at the lowest levels in 20 years,
”says Bryn. On this, he says that 1,900 properties will be registered in Capital. "In the days of the UVA, there were 7,900, that is, 4 times more," he adds.
The activity varies by area. Germán Gómez Picasso, director of Real Estate Report, clarifies that "in the last year there was
a more sustained demand in Province than in Capital
, where the drop in prices was more marked". Regarding this, the expert explains that the effect of the pandemic also affects, since "the search for lots and houses in suburban areas and within closed neighborhoods" was accentuated.
As in other parts of the world, people today prefer to live in places far from the big cities due to the rise of teleworking.
In another sense, Gómez Picasso does not foresee a recovery in the level of sales in the short term and
predicts new falls in property values
due to “lack of credit, the economic crisis, the rental law and the drop in salaries measured in Dollars".
But the specialist underlines the devastating impact of the exchange rate hold on the level of activity.
"Historically," says Gómez Picasso, "with stocks or corralito, people do not buy properties.
The seller wants
the tickets on the table
and with the stocks this is practically impossible ”.
Real estate prices go up and down at different speeds, depending on whether they are used or brand new. Armando Pepe, owner of the homonymous real estate company, explains that the price drop in 2002 was more important than the current one. "At the exit of convertibility,
the values fell close to 50%
, but this time the owners are not in debt in dollars as they were on that occasion," he says. In any case, he points out that the few operations that are carried out "
are applied with discounts of between 15 and 25% on the published values
."
Pepe agrees that the market is very tight and with very few inquiries. However, it ensures that sales do not depend so much on price. “
The only ones who buy are those who have the dollars saved.
What determines the price is supply and demand. Those that did drop a lot are the offices, because the vacancy level is very high. The premises, on the other hand, are kept because the owners prefer to retain them ”, the businessman graph.
The general manager of LJ Ramos, Diego Cazes, analyzes the context in another way.
“The market reflects different behaviors depending on the area.
In Vicente López - he exemplifies - the price of the used one fell very sharply.
In other places, not so much ”.
On the evolution of values between new and used, Cazes said that there is still to wait.
"The current difference is a photo, the film is more difficult," he says.
Today the gap is narrowing due to the last climb of the blue
, which relatively lowered the cost of construction.
"Now, if the government's intention is to step on the dollar, that could make construction more expensive," he said.
"If prices can continue to fall?
It is difficult to anticipate, but the values have settled quite a bit.
It happens that the market rises very fast when demand appears and falls very slowly, "he said.
In Capital there are 156,000 properties for sale
Seen in perspective, property prices rise and fall based on demand.
The connoisseurs, however, analyze other variables that affect the values, such as the level of stock, the exchange rate and the ease of obtaining mortgage loans.
In Capital, according to a study by the consultancy firm Reporte Inmobiliario, the square meter of a used home set a record of US $ 2,367 in May 2019.
Today it is worth US $ 1,732, which represents a drop of 26.8%
.
Current prices refer to 2014, when it was trading at US $ 1,694 (see infographic).
The falls in GBA and the interior of the country were much more pronounced: 32.9% (US $ 1,502 per square meter) and 39.5% (US $ 973), respectively.
The marked paralysis of the real estate market is reflected in the accumulated stock of properties.
In Capital, "
there are 156,000 properties for sale
: 114,000 apartments, 5,600 houses, 10,200 townhouses, 6,200 offices and 6,400 lots," lists Daniel Bryn, from Bryn Real State.
Evolution of supply in CABA
Apartments for rent and for sale in CABA
Tap to explore the data
Source
Maure Inmobiliaria
Infographic:
Clarín
Thus, in the City of Buenos Aires,
61% of the offer is used properties and 39%, brand new and under construction
.
In the first half of the year,
prices fell 4% on average
and the neighborhoods that lead the ranking were Monte Castro (7.5%), Agronomía (6.4%), San Cristóbal (5.6%) and Barracas ( 5.3%), according to a report by Real Estate Monitor based on data from the Prop.
Bryn explains that the steepest drops were in suburban neighborhoods, and a palpable reflection is the number of properties for sale in each location.
“In 2017 -graphs Bryn- the average was 3 per block.
Today we are in 10 and in some neighborhoods, such as Recoleta, Palermo and Belgrano, there are 30 ”.
The ranking of neighborhoods with the highest casualties so far in 2021 is completed by
Villa Santa Rita, Nueva Pompeya, Recoleta, Constitución, Palermo, Villa Crespo, Belgrano and Colegiales
.
Regarding the stock of properties for sale, the neighborhoods that lead are La Paternal, Belgrano and Coghlan, which exceed 12% of the total.
Of all, SanTelmo stands out: "In that neighborhood,
18% of the properties are for sale,
" says Bryn.
Due to its location, it is one of the areas of greatest tourist interest, one of the areas most affected by the pandemic.
Diego Cazes, managing partner of the real estate agency LJ Ramos, points out that the level of demand sets the course for prices.
“The current demand is very weak, however that does not necessarily imply that the values go down.
The market has already settled down a lot, "said the specialist.
Cazes interprets that there is another aspect to take into account and that is the cost of maintaining properties that are not sold.
"
Many buildings are very poorly maintained and that also impacts their value,
" he says.
For Cazes, unlike the offices, which mostly have a maintenance manager even though they are empty, "there are many people who do not want, or cannot, pay the expenses, and there are many buildings with significant deterioration."
In the market they also observe the price differences between new and used properties, which in recent years have been shrinking.
