On September 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin (also translated as Putin, Putin or Putin) delivered a public televised speech to the whole country, announcing that partial mobilization will be carried out in the Russian Federation from now on.
According to Reuters, this is Russia's first mobilization after World War II, and it has never happened in Afghanistan or Chechnya.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu also delivered a speech on the 21st to introduce the details of the local mobilization.
According to him, Russia has nearly 25 million manpower reserves available for mobilization. This partial mobilization will call in about 300,000 reservists, and the target group does not include students.
Shoigu pointed out that up to now, the front line between the Russian and Ukrainian armies is more than 1,000 kilometers long, and the protection of this front and Russian-controlled territory is exactly the purpose of this partial mobilization.
It also released the latest casualty data on both sides of the battlefield, saying that since February 24, the Russian army had lost a total of 5,937 people, while the Ukrainian army had lost 61,207 people and injured 49,368 people.
Looking back at the beginning of the "special military operation", Putin had said that there would be no mobilization for war, and now the commitment has been shaken, and Putin emphasized the Western involvement in his speech.
It said that Russia has reached the most dangerous moment, and now the Russian army is not only fighting against Ukraine, but also against Western military machines.
Putin even predicted that if Russia could not contain the offensive, the West and Ukraine would attack Crimea and launch an attack on the Russian mainland.
"The purpose of the West is to weaken, divide and ultimately destroy our country", "they now openly say that they managed to divide the Soviet Union in 1991 and it is time to do the same with Russia, which must be divided into many mutual areas where deadly clashes can occur.”
In response to the development of the entire "special military operation", Putin emphasized that the goal of "liberating the Donbass" remained unchanged, but for this military operation, he believed that "the decision to start a preemptive military operation is necessary and the only option. ".
At the same time, Putin expressed his support for Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and other places to hold referendums on accession to Russia, "We cannot, we have no moral right to let our relatives be torn apart by butchers. Broken into pieces, we had to respond to their sincere efforts to determine their own destiny."
From a historical perspective, the escalation of "special military operations" has brought Putin and Russia to the crossroads of history, with two extreme endings in front of them: 1917 or 1945.
The picture shows a screenshot of the video released by the Press Office of the Russian Ministry of Defense. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (middle) held a meeting in Moscow on September 21, 2022, along with Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Army. Right) and Deputy Defense Ministry Tsalikov (Ruslan Tsalikov).
(AP)
1917: The quagmire of war detonates a regime crisis
In 1917, due to the heavy casualties involved in World War I and social governance withered, the "February Revolution" broke out in the Russian Empire amid public grievances. Liberals, imperial officers and nobles forced Tsar Nicholas II to abdicate. , to establish a provisional government.
In November of the same year, the Bolsheviks launched the "October Revolution" and established Soviet Russia. Russia was then plunged into a five-year red and white civil war. Various ethnic groups within the territory of the old empire also launched armed independence movements simultaneously. Formally established in 1922.
Looking back at the origin of the changes in 1917, the First World War that broke out in 1914 is the key.
On July 24 of that year, the Russian Empire began military preparations, and on July 30, a national general mobilization was officially launched to fight the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the German Empire in the name of protecting the Kingdom of Serbia.
At the beginning of the war, patriotic sentiment was surging in all corners of society. People who originally hated the tsar also spontaneously organized anti-German demonstrations. However, with the defeat on the battlefield and the collapse of the domestic economy, war weariness gradually eroded people's hearts. The "February Revolution" began in 1917. The Romanov Dynasty rose up from the ground, and the Romanov dynasty was virtually destroyed, but the provisional government still ignored the domestic war weariness and insisted on continuing to participate in the war. In the end, in the case of industrial and transportation chaos, unstable material supply, and general dissatisfaction, the "October Revolution" in the rage of the ashes.
Although 1917 has positive historical significance in the historical view of the communist revolution, the "October Revolution" is especially regarded as a "great historical event that shook the world"; but from the perspective of Russian regime change, 1917 can be said to be quite a year. In a chaotic year, the war intensified the confrontation between the people and the government, and made the already heavy economic governance problems worsen. In the end, war weariness turned into the fire of those who seized power, which gave birth to regime change and chaos.
Looking at Russia today, 1917 is indeed one of the extreme possibilities for the future outcome of Putin and Russia, regardless of the differences between Putin and the tsarist regime.
On February 24, 2022, Russian airstrikes on Mariupol (Mariupol) in the Ukraine-controlled area of Donbas. An air base was attacked and smoked.
(AP)
At the beginning of the "special military operation" on February 24, although the Russian army was unsuccessful in defeating Kyiv's will to resist, it finally moved forward steadily after transferring to Donbas in April, and successfully opened up the land bridge connecting Crimea. .
However, from the end of June to the beginning of July, after the Russian army successively captured the important towns of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk in eastern Ukraine, the pace of their offensive continued to slow down, either because of poor logistical supplies, insufficient ammunition or personnel. Rest; in late August, the Ukrainian army started several counter-offensives, and the actual control line of the two sides changed drastically again. In the end, although the Ukrainian side paid heavy casualties in Kherson and did not gain much, it took place in Kharkiv. Successfully recovered more than 2,000 square kilometers of lost land, including Balakliia, Kupiansk, and Izium, and advanced the front to the Russian-Ukrainian border, as well as Kharkov and Luhansk near state borders.
This change in the situation of the war exposed the hidden worries of the insufficient deployment of Russian troops and raised doubts within Russia. Boris Nadezhdin, the former vice-chairman of the Russian State Duma (lower house of parliament), criticized him on the program, saying that Putin "was attacked by Misleading", Russia has only two options: national mobilization, or peace talks with Ukraine.
However, Putin once promised that the "special military operation" does not require war mobilization, and he is well aware that once the national general mobilization is carried out, ordinary people who have been kept out of the incident will have to suffer the pain of their families dying in battle, and economic operations will also be affected. Even Putin's support will inevitably be guaranteed, so he has always been reluctant to gamble.
But now there is obviously no room for hesitation on the battlefield. Even if the support of public opinion is to be sacrificed, Putin can only resort to dangerous tactics and start local mobilization. At the same time, various measures are taken to prevent public resistance and social riots.
On September 21, in Moscow, Russia, people gathered to protest against the "partial mobilization" implemented by the Putin government, shouting slogans and applauding from the roadside.
(AP)
The day before Putin's speech on September 20, Russia's State Duma passed a bill to increase penalties for popular mobilization and certain crimes in wartime.
Some of the clauses set or elevate the maximum sentence to 10 years for voluntary capture (without treason), leaving without permission, etc.; if you disobey your superiors during wartime or mobilization, the sentence will be higher; "Extraordinary" looting and vandalism is punishable by up to 15 years in prison.
In addition, according to the content of the bill, if the delivery target of the National Defense Order (GOZ) is not completed on time and causes great losses, it will be sentenced to up to 10 years in prison.
But despite this, as soon as the news of local mobilization came out, there were still waves of departures and reactionary mobilization demonstrations in Russia. Obviously, most people were not psychologically prepared.
For Putin, the intertwined effect of three contextual contexts may trigger the end of the regime’s collapse in 1917: first, the surging mood of the people’s resistance and mobilization continued to form a nationwide series of demonstrations; second, the United States and other Western forces took the opportunity to launch propaganda War and political infiltration have instigated the outbreak of a color revolution in Russia; third, after the Kremlin has conducted several local mobilizations and even national general mobilizations, the battlefield situation has not improved, leading some political elites to challenge Putin's ruling legitimacy.
And if the Putin regime really collapses, it is difficult to predict exactly whether the Westernization faction or the hardliners will take over.
However, if the Westernization faction takes over, the Russian-Ukrainian war may lead to peace talks, and Russia is very likely to be forced to make huge political concessions, not only for Ukraine, but also for the West.
A reactionary demonstration in Moscow on September 21, 2022, the police take away several demonstrators (AP)
1945: Victory in the Great Patriotic War
However, the Russian-Ukrainian war may also come to an end in 1945, that is, the victory of the Great Patriotic War after the bloody battle of the whole people.
On June 22, 1941, Adolf Hitler (also translated as Hitler) suddenly tore up the "Soviet-German Non-aggression Pact", and together with the armies of Hungary, Romania, Finland and other countries, launched the Barbarossa operation plan to blitz the Soviet Union.
Soviet leader Joseph Stalin (also translated as Stalin, Stalin) delivered a speech on July 3, calling on the Soviet people to stand up to the enemy.
In August of the same year, more than 600,000 Soviet troops were annihilated in the Battle of Kyiv; in November, the German Army Group Center was approaching the city of Moscow, and Stalin held a military parade on the Red Square in Moscow on November 7 and delivered an important speech. The army troops went directly to the front from Red Square; in December, the Germans were unable to win the battle of Moscow, so they had to change the blitzkrieg battle into a protracted battle, and relocated heavy troops to the southern front to attack Starlingrad, an important city in the Volga region. Launch an onslaught.
In February 1943, the Soviet Army won the Battle of Starlingrad with heavy casualties. About 330,000 German soldiers of the German Sixth Army were wiped out. After that, the German army retreated all the way, and the Soviet Army gradually mastered the rhythm of the counterattack; February 4, 1945 , Stalin participated in the Yalta Conference, the Soviet Union became a permanent member of the United Nations for its military exploits in defeating the German army, and included Poland and other places into its sphere of influence; in May 1945, the Soviet Red Army captured the German capital Berlin, and Hitler committed suicide. , Nazi Germany announced its unconditional surrender; on August 8, 1945, the Soviet Union tore up the "Soviet-Japanese Neutrality Pact" and declared war on Japan, at the same time launched the August Storm Operation, and defeated the Japanese Kwantung Army and the puppet Manchukuo Army within a week; August On the 15th, Emperor Hirohito announced the surrender of Japan. The Second World War ended with the victory of the Allies. Stalin also obtained the rank of Grand Marshal of the Soviet Union in the same year.
To sum up, although the Great Patriotic War cost the Soviet military and civilians casualties, it gave the Soviet Union the opportunity to master the international order and pattern: after the war, the Soviet Union not only became the five permanent members of the United Nations, but also led the Communist camp in the Cold War era, and launched more than half of the war with the United States. The confrontation between the two poles of the century is an indispensable half of the "post-World War II order".
Stalin, Soviet leader during the Great Patriotic War.
(Getty Images)
Of course, as far as the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war is concerned, the initiator of the war is Russia, which is different from the background of the Soviet Union’s invasion by the German army in the Great Patriotic War, and today’s Russia cannot tolerate a repeat of the scene of a large number of military and civilian casualties; The situation in which NATO even had to launch war mobilization is indeed the same as the last-ditch atmosphere of the Great Patriotic War: if it fails or falls into a quagmire, it may trigger the aforementioned 1917 ending; if it succeeds in forcing Ukraine to accept Russia’s political demands, or liberate Ukraine In the entire Donbass, Russia has successfully challenged the international pattern of the post-Cold War era, proclaiming that the era of Western domination is over, multi-polarization will become the mainstream, and Putin may also reach the pinnacle of power and gain a historical status like Stalin .
Looking closely at the current local mobilization, it is expected to be effective in three major goals: first, to alleviate the problem of insufficient Russian troops. After all, the confrontation line between Russia and Ukraine on the battlefield exceeds 1,000 kilometers, and Ukraine has been mobilized nationwide as early as February; second , to help consolidate the results of the referendum after September 27. According to Russian media reports on the 20th, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporozhye will hold a referendum on entry into Russia from September 23 to 27. The Russian-controlled area in the four places accounts for about 15% of Ukraine's territory, and its size is not far from Hungary. Third, it shows its determination to NATO and the Western camp, saying that in order to calculate the geopolitical general ledger, it does not care about sacrificing public opinion but also conduct war mobilization.
But even so, it remains to be seen how effective the mobilization will be.
For Putin, to trigger the successful outcome of the Great Patriotic War in 1945, the following contexts are needed: First, Russia must increase its propaganda and stability maintenance to avoid the "color revolution" from smoldering; second, Russia should Do your best to avoid multiple mobilizations before the results are visible, or even escalate all the way to a national general mobilization, otherwise the risk of regime collapse will skyrocket, and Moscow may not be able to survive until the day of victory; The results of the battlefield of "liberating the Donbass", while avoiding the embarrassment of Kharkov's retreat in four places in Russia, and the most ideal result is to force the West to give up its support for Ukraine with the "War of Breath", and finally let Kyiv and Russia signed an agreement, agreeing to amend the constitution, committing not to join NATO and to reduce its armaments.
For Putin, such an outcome can be said to achieve the goals of "demilitarization" and "denazification" at the beginning of the operation, and it is the best result that can be explained internally.
Of course, 1917 and 1945 were both quite extreme endings, and Russia is more likely to have a mixed fate, such as the eventual liberation of Donbas but Putin's loss, or a temporary ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has not been liberated. The confrontation is thus prolonged.
Regardless of the outcome, the Russian-Ukrainian war has already impacted the post-Cold War international order, and the fate of Russia, Ukraine or the world will be rewritten by this conflict.
[Russian local mobilization Q&A]
What kind of interweaving might lead Russia to the end of the regime's collapse in 1917?
Reactionary mobilization demonstrations continued, the West took the opportunity to instigate color revolutions, and Russian political elites began to rally against Putin
What can the current local mobilization ideally achieve?
Alleviate the shortage of troops on the battlefield, help consolidate the referendum results, and demonstrate the will to fight to the West
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