The last 11 electoral polls: how the fight starts in Nation, Province and City

2021-07-25T12:45:00.095Z

They closed the lists and Clarín analyzes the bid in the three main scenarios. I vote for space and internal.

Eduardo Paladini

07/25/2021 9:00

Clarín.com
Politics

Updated 07/25/2021 9:00 AM

With the

lists confirmed

and the campaign for

PASO 2021

officially launched, the questions fall one after the other: how do the main forces start for this new electoral fight? How many votes will the rift between the

Front of All

and

Together for Change

consume this time

? How will the opposition inmates impact the two Buenos Aires? Can

Florencio Randazzo

and

José Luis Espert / Javier Milei

be "the" surprise? To try to begin to clarify these questions, or at least add data for the debate,

Clarín

analyzes the last

11 polls

of voting intention in the three key scenarios:

Nation, Province and City

Nation: advantage (slight) for the ruling party

Beyond politicians and specialists suggesting that the mid-term legislative elections are actually 24 simultaneous provincial elections and not a single national one,

there will undoubtedly be a reading in this sense

, especially due to the volume that the crack had in 2019.

And even if this last parameter (

48 to 40 for the Frente de Todos)

, is not the most precise to compare, because it was a presidential one, it will be

a point of reference

Today,

no national survey raises neither that difference nor those levels of polarization

- close to 90 points -, basically and logically because there are still many undecided.

About 10 days ago,

Clarín published a special report in the face of the September 12 primaries

and there was already a dispersion of figures, with a (slight) advantage for the ruling party.

Candidates of the Frente de Todos in Escobar, along with Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner.

Presidency photo

Out of five surveys at the country level, in two the ruling party prevailed, in two there was a technical tie and in one it was Together for Change at the top.

Now, this newspaper analyzed

three subsequent polls

, and in some way the phenomenon repeats itself:

in two points the FdT and in one JxC

In all three cases, the gaps are small, just above the margin of error.

Real Time Data

, a firm that makes daily update measurements and has clients in the country and abroad, gives

four points in favor to the ruling party: 31 to 27

, with almost 20 undecided, plus 8% for liberals and 6% for Peronism no K.

v1.7 0421

Voting intention at the country level

Based on three national surveys.

In %.

Tap to explore the data

Source:

Giacobbe, RTD and Oh Panel

Infographics:

Clarín

Oh Panel

, a consulting firm that works more for the business world but also measures electoral scenarios, reported

29 to 24 for the Fernández alliance

, with more than 30% of "don't know / don't answer."

And

Jorge Giacobbe

, one of the best known analysts, due to his presence in the media, is the

only one who predicted a favorable national scenario for Juntos por el Cambio: 33.8% to 27.9%

, with more than 20 undecided.

But with no less detail: when it projects the "don't know", there is an almost total parity, with the FdT 6 tenths above: 35.8% to 35.2%.

Will they hit you this time?

The

bulk of the pollsters come from a national antecedent to be forgotten

: none of them hit the wide-ranging triumph of the FdT in the PASO, nor did the Macrista comeback for the general.

Province: (wide) dispersion in forecasts

The

province of Buenos Aires

is (politically and statistically) the mother of all battles.

There,

nearly 40% of the entire

national

electorate votes

and it is the

district that renews the most seats of deputies: 35 out of 127

It is also the place where pollsters are showing the most diverse numbers.

The

antecedents for Kirchnerism are complex

: in Buenos Aires it lost the last three intermediate legislatures (2009, 2013 and 2017) and - paradoxically - the gap it achieved in 2019 - around 15 points - leaves a very high bar.

A narrow victory could even be celebrated by the opposition.

Diego Santilli, with Graciela Ocaña, Juan López, Marcela Campagnoli and Gerardo Milman, all part of the Buenos Aires JxC list.

Clarín

agreed these days to three Buenos Aires measurements.

One from Giacobbe, another from

the Psychology Observatory (OPSA) of the UBA

and a third from

CB Consultora Opinion Pública

, a firm with origins in Córdoba that conducts surveys throughout the country.

The three, in addition to the general numbers by space, somehow measured the PASS of JxC between

Diego Santilli

(PRO) and

Facundo Manes

(UCR), perhaps the most compelling internal of all.

At a general level,

gives an

advantage of between 5 and 6 points to the Front of All

: 35.8% to 30.1% when they ask for space, 35.7% to 30.4% when the JxC variant is Santilli and 34.2% to 29.5% when the option becomes Manes.

measures a fourth scenario, where he puts Santilli and Manes competing in the PASO against the rest of the forces, and there

the vice chief of Buenos Aires leads the neuroscientist by 18.2% to 14.8%

v1.7 0421

Voting intention in the Province of Buenos Aires

Based on three Buenos Aires surveys.

In %.

Tap to explore the data

Source:

CB, Giacobbe and OPSA / UBA

Infographic:

Clarín

Of the rest of the forces,

in all the proposals randazzo's non-K Peronism is third

, with between 7.8% and 10.5%;

then the Espert Liberals, with between 2.6% and 5%;

and the left below, around 3 points.

With the

Giacobbe

and

OPSA

surveys in Buenos Aires,

a very striking fact is repeated: starting, with more than 20% undecided, they give

Juntos por el Cambio

advantage of 10 points

: 36.6% to 26.6% the analyst media and 35% to 25% work related to the UBA.

But when both project undecided, the ruling party grows and there is an almost equal forecast: 38.4% to 37.5% according to Giacobbe and 41% to 40% according to OPSA, always with JxC at the top.

These two consultants also evaluated the internal between Santilli and Manes and

again the macrista / Peronist was better off than the radical

: OPSA confronts them hand-in-hand and they end up 55% to 45%: while Giacobbe mixes them with other pre-candidates and they add up to 19 , 3% and 15.4% respectively.

In the report two months before the PASO,

Clarín had published nine forecasts in Province

: six gave the FdT up, two to JxC and one tied.

If the three new ones are added, the great majority puts the ruling party ahead.

City: (wide) advantage for Together for Change

Although CABA became the fourth district with the most voters in the country just a few years ago (below the provinces of Buenos Aires, Córdoba and Santa Fe), it is still

the second to renew the most deputies

(13 this time) and also,

the one that attracts the most attention

behind the Buenos Aires battle.

Perhaps because of that combination of factors, in recent days

five polls

with Buenos Aires electoral numbers were released.

With a coincidence

: here there would be a clear winner, which would be, as for more than a decade, the PRO / Let's Change / Together for Change.

María Eugenia Vidal, this weekend when she signed her candidacy.

It is a favorite for the PASO.

The Buenos Aires studies accessed by this newspaper were the aforementioned

Giacobbe, OPSA and Real Time Data, plus GyC and CEOP

, the latter well known for being one of the consulting

firms

that works for the national government.

In this case,

the floor from which Juntos por el Cambio starts leaves him facing a complex challenge

: he comes from getting between 17 and 20 points from the Frente de Todos in 2019 (for the presidential and head of Government);

and renews 10 of the 13 deputies, because for this election, Cambiemos and Martín Lousteau's radicals are going together, who were separated in 2017. To retain that ten places, the force led by Horacio Rodríguez Larreta would need to approach 60%, today unthinkable.

v1.7 0421

Voting intention in the City of Buenos Aires

Based on five polls from Buenos Aires.

In %.

Tap to explore the data

Source:

RTD, Giacobbe, CEOP, OPSA / UBA and GyC

Infographics:

Clarín

Most of the polls - including the four that Clarín published two months before the PASO - give

Juntos por el Cambio an advantage of between 10 and 15 points

Except for the CEOP survey, which predicts a gap of less than 5 points when asking for space.