With 40% of the votes counted, the current head of state takes 15 points from his rival in the runoff, the Social Democrat Kemal Kiliçdaroglu. Some 61 million people were eligible to go to the polls, in a day that passed generally calm, despite some isolated incidents and allegations of irregularities by the opposition.
The final decision could have implications far beyond Ankara, as Turkey stands at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, and plays a key role in NATO. If he wins, Erdogan, 69, could remain in power until 2028, after three terms as prime minister and two as president.