Frédéric Dabi is general director of the Opinion department of the Ifop polling institute. He is the author of La Fracture (Ed.
Les Arènes, 2021) Dabi: The breakthrough in the polls of the social democratic candidate Raphaël Glucksmann, with a new peak at 12.5%, marks the failure of the president's strategy to transform the European elections into a referendum on Ukraine. The French are changing their prism in this context where they are less attached to Ukraine than to the societal situation that we know, Dabi says. The spell is broken, he says, and there are no more LREM lists as a choice for the French electorate, except for those disappointed with his position on social and societal issues, such as the Depardieu affair. The president is now experiencing the agonies of a “sanction vote” experienced by the majority list, says Dabi, and this is less to be attributed to the list than the context.