Söder's eco-campaign is having an impact: the majority of Union voters reject Merz's black-green initiative. In addition to the dispute over the direction to the coalition, it is also unclear within the Union who should lead a possible alliance as Chancellor.

The young NRW Prime Minister is already governing with a black- green coalition - despite the alleged skepticism in his party. The FDP is the clear favorite for a government alliance in the event of a new election or in the 2025 federal election.