Ukrainian drone strikes hit the main artery of the Russian economy. The result is that Russia has to limit oil production in refineries.
According to the IEA, Ukraine damaged 11 oil refineries in Russia through its attacks. If the refineries close for repairs for four to eight weeks after the attacks, this could also severely restrict delivery of diesel and naphtha (crude gasoline) to international markets. Russia has so far claimed that it has not stopped production at refineries despite Ukrainian attacks. Contrary to Russian statements, the Ukrainian attacks led to immediate production losses and caused problems at the companies, according to the International Energy Agency. In April 2023, refineries produced an average of 5.25 million barrels of oil per day in the first three days of April 2024. In the same period, there were still 5.78 million barrels produced. The IEA estimates that Russia's economy could lose 500,000 to 600,000 barrels per day of crude oil processing capacity in the second quarter of 2024.