In the short term, "a cyclical phase still slightly expanding" is expected for the Italian economy. The Parliamentary Budget Office states this by estimating GDP growth of 0.2% in the first quarter of 2024.
The uncertainty in the forecasts, underlines the PBO in the latest note on the economic situation, "is also large in relation to the recent revision of the national accounts data and the difficulty of quantifying investments in the construction sector" In the medium term, downside risks also remain prevalent, linked above all to strong geopolitical tensions, according to PBO note on economic situation. The data on construction production for January was very high, PBO says, adding that it is difficult to predict the long-term trend of the construction industry in Italy. The PBO notes that it has not been able to make a decision on the future of the Italian construction industry as it is too early to make such a decision. The Italian economy is expected to grow by 0.3% this year and 0.4% next year.