EL PAÍS has built a prediction model, similar to the one it has used in the 2018 elections and twenty other elections in different countries. The model works in three steps: (1) we start from the average of previous surveys, (2) we incorporate a certain degree of uncertainty around it, and (3) we simulate the elections 20,000 times to calculate the probabilities of each outcome.
Our prediction says that Claudia Sheinbaum has an 89% chance of victory, but her rival Xóchitl Gálvez retains 1 option out of 10 to surprise.