A child who is born today could experience a world on her 71st birthday that has grown on average four degrees warmer. It may have experienced periods of food shortage as rising temperatures lowered yields of corn, soy and rice.
Throughout its life, it has inhaled air contaminated by the burning of fossil fuels and may have developed asthma. It may also have suffered a heart attack at the age of 71, because the risk of it is increased by polluted air. It has seen how tropical pathogens have spread to new areas. Later in life, it has more likely to experience prolonged periods of drought, severe flooding, or even forest fire in the area.
As he grows older, the heat waves make him particularly worried, because the strong heat is particularly bad for seniors, that has not changed.
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It could be different
The world in which today's baby will live in 71 years could look like this. But it could also be different if the world uses the two-degree target agreed in Paris with all its might: then, on its eleventh birthday, the child would have realized that Canada is no longer using coal. On his 21st birthday, all cars with internal combustion engines would be banned in France. When it's 31st, humanity's carbon footprint would bottom out at zero. Important side effects of this and other measures against climate change: cleaner air and clean drinking water.
An international team of researchers has published in the medical journal "The Lancet" its annual report on how climate change affects health. Founded in 2016, the group consists of 120 experts from 35 different institutions, including the World Health Organization (WHO), the World Bank and numerous universities. The group goes through many areas where climate change and health are interdependent. Two examples:
1. Pathogens benefit from higher temperatures
Higher temperatures favor the spread of various pathogens. This applies, for example, to the so-called vibrions. These bacteria are also found in the Baltic Sea and thrive better in warm water. The number of days that vibrios can spread due to the temperature in the Baltic Sea has doubled since the 1980s, according to the report. In 2018 it was 107 days, which is the previous record. In some cases, even people have already died of a Vibrionsinfektion they have contracted while bathing in the Baltic Sea.
If the climate changes, pathogens and disease-transmitting mosquitoes can spread to regions that were previously too cold for them. For example, only recently was it known that hundreds of people in Germany had West Nile fever. Previously, the pathogen in this country - except for a case in which a veterinarian in Bavaria had been infected in the study of a bird - has been detected in rare cases with tourists.
Alina Herrmann from the Heidelberg Institute for Global Health, who was involved in the "Lancet" report, says that there is currently little risk that new mosquito-borne diseases will be established in Germany. "However, in recent years there have been isolated outbreaks of tropical infectious diseases in Europe, such as dengue or chikungunya fever."
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2. Heat waves claim thousands of lives
No glimpse into the future, but one in the past: In 2018 Germany experienced an extreme heat summer. Such heat waves lead to thousands of deaths. Above all, people over the age of 75, chronically ill and babies are at risk. "Since 2017, there have been official recommendations in Germany to establish heat action plans at local or state level based on recommendations of the World Health Organization of 2008. So far, however, their implementation is lacking in many places," says researcher Herrmann.
What uses the climate, can also be healthy
The report shows what health benefits can be expected if states meet the Paris climate target. For example, it has long been known that health benefits when people cycle more often instead of driving. Also, we know that an expansion of the cycling infrastructure means that put more people on the wheel. More bikes mean fewer cars - and that means less air pollution. That, in turn, is good for the lungs and cardiovascular system.
Health scientist Florian Fischer of the University of Bielefeld says: "Therefore, the Lancet countdown may perhaps serve to understand climate protection always as a health protection."
Whether the world is on the right track - the researchers can not answer the question conclusively. Many developments noted in the report are very worrying, they write. But there are also encouraging examples, so that cautious optimism is appropriate.
