According to the latest figures, mortality from the new coronavirus, 2019 n-CoV, which appeared in China is declining. "We went from 3% to 2% today," said Friday, January 31, Yazdan Yazdanpanah, head of the department of infectious diseases at the Bichat hospital in Paris and director of the Institute of infectious diseases at the National Institute of health (Inserm) where took place, in the morning, a point on the epidemic.
But beware, these results which evolve from day to day must be taken with great care. "Perhaps there are more cases than expected, perhaps there will be a jump in mortality," he said, very cautious. We will know more in the coming days. ” A cohort will be set up, at the international level, to refine these figures.
At present, we know that the new coronavirus is much less deadly than MERS, a virus of the same family, detected for the first time in 2012 in Saudi Arabia, which has a mortality rate of 25 to 30%, or that the Severe acute respiratory syndrome linked to the coronavirus, the SARS (around 10%). However, the 2019 coronavirus, which has already killed more than 200 people in China, kills far more influenza, associated with one death per 1000. It is also transmitted faster than the latter itself, if it remains without any measures less contagious than measles.
However, it remains an unknown: can we transmit the virus before the onset of symptoms? "We can't say," said Eric d'Ortenzio, epidemiologist and scientific coordinator at Inserm. There are a few examples in China of contamination before the onset of symptoms, but only one to two cases are concerned. ” The incubation period of the virus is known more and more precisely with an average of 5 to 6 days, even if this period can range from 2 days minimum to 14 days maximum.
Children almost unaffected
In terms of research into treatments, three molecules have already been identified. "Clinical trials will be conducted to assess their tolerance and effectiveness in the weeks or months to come. They will certainly take place in China, as a priority, continues Eric d'Ortenzio. This action is coordinated by the World Health Organization with the participation of France ". Vaccine candidates have also been announced. A phase 1 will be launched to assess tolerance on healthy volunteers. It could take months.
Can we hope to obtain the famous antidote? "It's difficult to answer," admits Eric d'Ortenzio. Today, everything is done to conduct tests in real time as quickly as possible. If we have a vaccine for this epidemic, it will be a bonus, otherwise we will have it for another one. ” Good news, this coronavirus does not affect children very much.