2019-Ncov. A few letters and numbers that have stirred the planet, and raise fears of a pandemic. The new virus, which appeared in China in late December, killed more than 200 people and led the WHO to declare "an international emergency."
Where does this new coronovirus come from? How to protect yourself? What consequences for the planet? Here's what we know about 2019-nCoV, which infected thousands and killed a hundred.
DISEASE
What is 2019-nCoV?
On December 31, the World Health Organization (WHO) was informed of several cases of viral-like pneumonia in the city of Wuhan in central China. The discovery of 2019-nCoV, in connection with these pneumonias, was officially announced by the Chinese authorities on January 7. On January 30, WHO decided to declare a global health emergency.
The name "nCoV" means "new coronavirus". Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses, discovered in 1967, which cause diseases ranging from a simple cold to more severe pathologies. They are so called because of the envelope of the virus, in the shape of a crown. 2019-nCoV is a parent of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which also appeared in China in 2002.
What are the symptoms ?
People infected with 2019-nCoV may develop symptoms similar to those of a moderate flu: fatigue, chills, fever, and cough or shortness of breath, says the Ministry of Health.
But this virus can prove fatal in the least resistant patients. People with pre-existing chronic diseases such as hypertension, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, liver disease, respiratory disease seem to be more likely to develop severe forms, as are the elderly.
Where does the virus come from?
The researchers believe that this new virus probably comes from bats, like that of SARS. But we still don't know which animal transmitted it to humans. Crocodile, rats, snakes, foxes, wolf cubs, porcupines ... Very different species were sold on the market in Huana, Wuhan, which the first cases identified frequented.
A Chinese team put forward the hypothesis of the snake causing the contamination, but it was immediately challenged by other experts, who tend to favor a mammal. In the case of Sras, the intermediate host was the civet.
Is there a treatment?
No specific treatment has been identified to date. Only the symptoms can be relieved. In an interview with France 24, Chinese epidemiologist Li Lanjuan said it would take about three months to prove that a vaccine is effective against this coronavirus. Specialists we interviewed are much more cautious, such as Anne Goffard, virologist and researcher at the University Hospital of Lille (North): "If they really get there, hat!" "
THE TRANSMISSION
How is the virus transmitted?
Most of the first patients affected by this new coronavirus had gone to the seafood market in Wuhan (closed since January 1), where snakes, badgers or live rats lived together. The hypothesis of a disease originally transmitted by animals is therefore preferred.
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Given the high number of new cases reported by the Chinese authorities since January 19, human-to-human transmission has now been proven. "It is likely that this coronavirus is similar to that of other human coronaviruses, which are generally transmitted through close contact after inhalation of infectious droplets emitted during sneezing or coughing by the patient, or after contact with surfaces freshly contaminated with these secretions, indicates Public Health France. Coronaviruses survive for up to three hours in the outside environment, on dry inert surfaces. In an aqueous environment, these viruses can survive for several days. "
How many people can a sick person infect?
Experts are looking into the level of contagion from 2019-nCoV. According to several estimates, this basic reproduction rate, also called R zero, is moderate, ranging from 1.4 to 3.8.
In a study published in the major medical journal New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM), Chinese scientists estimate that each patient infected an average of 2.2 people. A rate closer to winter flu (1.3) than to measles (more than 12) and comparable to Sras (3).
What is the incubation period?
In this same Chinese study published by the New England Journal of Medicine, the researchers estimate that the incubation period, that which precedes the appearance of the first symptoms, is on the order of 5.2 days on average. But it varies greatly depending on the patient. On January 27, the World Health Organization mentioned a range of 2 to 10 days for the onset of symptoms. France has decided to confine for 14 days the French returnees from China.
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At what stage is a patient contagious?
This crucial question remains unanswered. Is contagion possible even before symptoms appear, like flu? This is what the Chinese authorities suggested on January 26. But this hypothesis cannot be confirmed with certainty because it is based on the observation of a few cases.
How will the epidemic evolve?
Difficult to predict with precision the evolution of the 2019-nCoV epidemic, which scientists are gradually discovering. According to a study by researchers from Lancaster University, the University of Florida and the University of Glasgow, there will be more than 200,000 cases in China on February 4. And the rest of their forecasts are no more reassuring: the number of cases could increase until reaching a peak in April and May in areas already facing an epidemic, before decreasing. Researchers at Wuhan University are more optimistic: they estimate the date of the peak of the epidemic on February 8.
"Modeling work is underway," said the Ministry of Health. Health authorities are closely monitoring developments in the world. It is of course too early to be certain. "
THE PROPAGATION
Which countries are affected by the epidemic?
Cases of patients infected with the new virus have been confirmed in twenty countries:
- Thirteen in Asia : China, Thailand, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Macao, Malaysia, South Korea, Vietnam, Nepal, Cambodia and Sri Lanka.
- Three in Europe : France, Germany and Finland.
- Australia, the United States, Canada and the United Arab Emirates
How many people are infected?
As of Friday, January 31, there were 9,893 cases worldwide. In China, the latest report shows 9776 infected people. Thailand and Japan are the two other countries most affected by the epidemic with 14 and 14 cases respectively. In France, a sixth patient affected by the coronavirus was identified on January 30.
And in France ?
Six people were hospitalized in an isolation room: four in Paris, including three at Bichat (Xe) hospital - among them, two are in intensive care - and one at the Bordeaux University Hospital. Here are their profiles:
- PARIS. An 80-year-old Chinese tourist from Hubei province is in serious condition and has been placed on artificial ventilation. He had first consulted the emergency room of the European Georges Pompidou hospital on Saturday 25, but had not been spotted as a carrier of the coronavirus.
- PARIS. Her daughter, in her fifties, was also infected. We do not know if she had arrived in France already ill, or if the virus was transmitted to her by her father on French soil.
- PARIS. A 31-year-old man of Chinese descent, whose condition has recently deteriorated, was placed in intensive care.
- PARIS. His partner, 30 years old and also of Chinese origin, no longer exhibits symptoms.
- PARIS. A liberal doctor was infected after being in contact with a person carrying the coronavirus, but whose case was subsequently confirmed in Asia. The patient put himself in solitary confinement and is currently hospitalized in Paris. "His condition does not cause concern," as Professor Salomon, Director General of Health told us. It is therefore the first human-to-human contamination reported on French soil with this coronavirus, as specified by the Directorate General of Health (DGS).
- BORDEAUX. A forties, a wine professional who returned from the Wuhan area for a few days, presented with cough and fever at a SOS Doctors center, before being transferred to the Bordeaux University Hospital. His condition is stable.
Who are the victims ?
As of January 31, the coronavirus has already killed 213 people in China. Jean-Claude Manuguerra, head of the emergency biological intervention unit at the Pasteur Institute, explained to the Parisian on January 25 that the deceased were "elderly patients suffering from comorbidities ( Editor's note: diseases that accompany them) 'others ) or younger but sick, immunocompromised'.
However, in France, the 31-year-old man's condition worsened to the point of requiring intensive care hospitalization. “This is an unexpected situation, recognizes Professor Bruno Lina, virus specialist, in Le Parisien. He should not have been among those affected. We will have to investigate: did he have a particular piece of land? A secondary infection? ".
In a very detailed study published in the scientific journal The Lancet, doctors from Wuhan hospital analyzed the situation of the 41 patients with nCoV-2019, hospitalized in the city at the start of the epidemic between mid-December and January 2. 32 patients had been admitted to intensive care and in the end, six died.
All of these patients, a third of whom had a pre-existing pathology, had pneumonia, almost all had fever, three-quarters coughed and more than half had difficulty breathing.
What is the mortality rate for 2019-nCoV?
At this time, we cannot know the exact death rate, because we do not know how many people are actually infected. The Minister of Health, Agnès Buzyn, nevertheless affirmed on January 28 that the rate "is today clearly below 5%".
The mortality rate from the epidemic of the Seas (Middle East respiratory syndrome, which appeared in 2012 in the Arabian Peninsula), which is still ongoing, stands at a much higher level, 34.5%, while that of SARS had reached 9.5%.
How big is the epidemic?
On Wednesday January 29, the WHO announced that the coronavirus epidemic had exceeded that of the SARS in 2002-2003, in number of infections.
At the time, the virus had killed 774 people worldwide, including 349 in mainland China. In France, doctors remain attentive to the evolution of the epidemic but want to put its dangerousness into perspective compared to others. Influenza, for example, claimed 18,317 victims in 2014-2015 and 9,900 in 2018-2019.
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PREVENTION
What precautions should be taken to avoid contamination?
The advice for avoiding catching the virus is the same as for a flu or a cold. Respect standard hygiene measures: wash your hands regularly, stay away from sick people, cough in your elbow, use disposable tissues.
Contrary to popular belief, wearing a surgical mask is not advised because its effectiveness has not been demonstrated. It is recommended only for symptomatic sick people to avoid spreading the disease by air.
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For those who go on a trip to Asia, to countries neighboring China, avoid close contact with a sick person, with living or dead animals, keep away from crowds and, above all, wash their hands. “Travelers must walk around with an alcohol-based solution. If everyone washed their hands perfectly, we would have far fewer epidemics, ”insisted, in Le Parisien, Paul-Henri Consigny, infectious disease doctor, director of the medical center of the Institut Pasteur.
How to react in case of suspected contamination?
If you have symptoms of 2019-nCoV coronavirus, do not go to the emergency room because you may contaminate patients who have already been compromised by other diseases.
The suspect case should contact the Samu (15), who will put him in touch with an infectious disease specialist. If the specialist judges that the person may be contaminated with 2019-nCoV, he will be taken care of and isolated in an infectious disease department. A specific biological examination will confirm the infection.
What measures have been taken in France to avoid contamination?
At airports, a specific welcome for travelers for flights from China, Hong Kong and Macao has been provided since January 25 in Paris Charles-de-Gaulle and Saint-Denis de La Réunion.
The airline Air France announced on January 30 that it would suspend its connections to and from mainland China until February 9, 2020.
In addition, the Chinese New Year parade, scheduled for Sunday February 2 in Paris (XIIIth), has been postponed to the spring.
How will the repatriation of the French from China go?
The French government has announced the repatriation of 250 French people living in Wuhan and a hundred nationals from other European countries. A first plane left in the night from Wednesday to Thursday. Passengers must arrive in Istres (Bouches-du-Rhône) this Friday, January 31, before being placed in isolation in a holiday center in Carry-le-Rouet, for 14 days.
A second aircraft is to be chartered in the coming days. An Airbus A380, which took off from Portugal Thursday morning, should bring some 350 Europeans present in Wuhan, including French.
"Only healthy or asymptomatic citizens will be allowed to travel," said the European Commission.
How are other countries reacting?
The United States, South Korea and Japan have also announced the repatriation of their nationals. A Japanese plane carrying 200 people landed in Tokyo early Wednesday morning.
In Australia, the government of Scott Morrisson is negotiating with Beijing to repatriate 600 nationals from the province of Hubei. The passengers will be quarantined for two weeks on Christmas Island, 2,600 km from the mainland in the Indian Ocean.
Russia announced on January 30 that it intends to close its 4,250 km border with China to fight the spread of the virus.