Could the Oise be the new Codogno (Italy)? Announced this Tuesday, the two coronavirus contaminations in Picardy, including one fatal, resemble furiously the start of the epidemic in this small Lombard town, 50 km from Milan. And relaunches the question that we all feared: can we imagine in France an Italian scenario with an outbreak of cases throughout the country? "What I feared yesterday can happen today, we risk being faced with the same type of situation," says Professor Anne-Claude Crémieux, infectious disease specialist at the Parisian hospital Saint-Louis.
Whether the 55-year-old man in intensive care in Amiens or the professor of sexagenarian technology, died on the night of February 25 to 26 at Pitié-Salpêtrière, in Paris, the origin of their contamination remains a riddle. Neither of them would have traveled to China or northern Italy in the past 14 days. So who transmitted the coronavirus to them? It is this same unknown that is behind the spread of Covid-19 in Italy. For lack of information, it is impossible to isolate the source and prevent it from spreading the low-noise infection. “You have to act very quickly to go back to the zero patient. It is a heavy and complex investigation ”, warns Arnaud Fontanet, epidemiologist at the Pasteur Institute.
Another fear is that the virus will spread to the hospital, where patients are most fragile and able to develop serious forms. Among our Latin neighbors, patients infected without knowing it, came to the hospital and were not immediately diagnosed because they had not been linked to China. They went under the radars and thus contaminated caregivers and patients. This is how the coronavirus has circulated so quickly, even crossing the Alps.
In France, a 64-year-old Frenchman, returning from Lombardy, and his wife were thus positive and were hospitalized in Annecy (Haute-Savoie). Another 36 year old, back from the same region, is treated in Strasbourg (Bas-Rhin). Their state of health is not considered worrying. On Wednesday evening, there were 18 cases in France, 2 dead, 12 cured, 4 still hospitalized.
15 million masks destocked
How to stem the multiplication of cases on French soil as much as possible? "It is up to us, caregivers, to be vigilant," notes Anne-Claude Crémieux. We should no longer pay attention only to the geographical area and the symptoms, but also to look for grouped cases ”. In other words, locate a center of infection in a hospital.
Another solution is to set up barrier measures: limiting travel, keeping suspect cases at home. “They are effective, we see it in China where the number of patients is falling. "Thus, a last assessment reports, this Wednesday, 52 dead in the Middle Empire, the lowest daily figure for three weeks. And for the first time, there were more cases outside of China than in the country.
In France, we are already starting to organize with, for example, the provision of 15 million masks, the majority intended for healthcare professionals. In Reims (Marne), a hundred students were quarantined after a stay in Milan, in Nice (Alpes-Maritimes), the end of the carnival was canceled like the lemon festival in Menton (Provence-Alpes-Côte Azure)… At the same time, ironically, the end of the game was not whistled for the Lyon-Juventus Turin match, which took place this Wednesday evening in the city of Gaul.
"Benign forms in 82% of cases"
An epidemic in France, "it is very likely," maintains Gilles Pialoux, head of the infectious diseases department at the Tenon hospital in Paris. The specialist warns, there will necessarily be "sorting errors": patients, without symptoms, will be poorly identified, others will not dare to say that they have traveled in the red zone like in Italy. Because this "public pressure", he says, generates stigma. "Someone who coughs will not want to explain that he is coming back from the Venice carnival! "
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Faced with the threat of spread, the doctor warns: we will have to change the system. “The virus circulates very quickly but fortunately its gravity does not change. It gives benign forms in 82% of the cases. The problem is that our hospital is already 98% saturated. To get sick people in, you have to get out or not accept them any more, ”reflects Gilles Pialoux. His proposal for the least serious cases? Make your own quarantine at home. A new word, which we risk using more and more, sums it up: self-confinement.
VIDEO. The advice of two doctors to protect yourself well
