The coronavirus has already been detected in at least 160 countries on five continents. Its growth in exponential growth phase in half the world. The following graphs show the evolution of the rhythm of the epidemic in all the countries with more than 100 confirmed cases, according to the numbers of infected and deaths related to Covid-19.
The graphs show the evolution of the number of confirmed cases and deaths for each country. For each continent, we have drawn a graph on a linear scale, but to detail each country we use the logarithmic scale, where the distance from 1 to 10 is the same as from 10 to 100, etc. This better captures the nature of an epidemic: it multiplies. The curve of an epidemic outbreak, drawn linearly, is a curve that shoots out like a rocket. Plotted logarithmically, instead, it becomes a straight line - and thanks to that it is much easier to see when the rate of spread of the virus slows down and the outbreak is no longer exponential. The good news for a country comes when that line bends and you see an ever-decreasing slope curve. It is the case of China or Korea.
January: the virus emerges in Asia
In January it was when they detected the first infected in China. Initially, cases and deaths doubled every other day, but in February the country's extreme isolation measures began to take effect: the expansion slowed down and the outbreak was eventually contained. Last Thursday was the first day without any new community contagion. In South Korea, they have also slowed the epidemic. Japan and Singapore acted quickly and have slowed the virus, although it is not clear that they have stopped it. In many other countries — including Iran, whose confirmed case numbers are unreliable — the data suggests that the pandemic is in an exponential phase.
We have categorized countries according to the "doubling time" of confirmed cases. That is, every how many days the number of infected is doubling. The higher this figure, the better. In green , those that take more than 20 days, in yellow those that take between 10 and 20; in red those that take less than 10.
February: the virus explodes in Europe
The first local outbreak of contagion on the continent was detected in Italy. It only took a week from infected number 20 to dead number 20, suggesting that the outbreak had been active and silent for weeks. The alarm in Italy caused European countries to redouble their detection efforts. In Spain, for example, the cases detected within a few days of an outbreak that was actually already here multiplied. Right now the coronavirus is in an exponential growth phase in practically all of Europe: in Italy, in Spain, in Germany, France, Switzerland or the United Kingdom. Both the cases, and especially the dead, multiply every day, waiting for the containment measures taken by countries such as Italy and Spain to begin to show their effects. [Here you can see more detailed data of Spain and each autonomy]
One of the debates in Europe right now is the lethality of the virus. According to the WHO, 3% or 4% of people who we know have contracted the disease have died. In South Korea that figure is 1.1% and in Germany 0.36%, while in China (4%), Spain (5.1%) or Italy (8.6%) they are much higher. But that metric is imprecise. In some countries the lethality could be higher than what their figures say now, because deaths come late. This is the case in Germany, surely, because its outbreak seems more incipient. But in most countries, including Italy and Spain, the fatality is likely to be less than the current ratio between their deaths and their confirmed cases. The reason is undetection: there are people who get sick from Covid-19 with mild symptoms and if they were counted they would lower the lethality.
March: the virus threatens America
The coronavirus has taken longer to reach South America, but there are already several countries in exponential growth. Brazil is the country in the region that registers the most coronavirus infections, but the rate at which cases are growing is, at the moment, similar in many countries. In Chile, cases have doubled in three days, as in Brazil, Peru or Colombia. The advantage of these countries is that they have been able to take action before, alerted by the situation in Europe, which could help them. [Here you can see the details of Latin American countries like Colombia, Brazil, Mexico or Peru.]
The United States now has one of the most troubling trends. There are about 20,000 confirmed cases, which are doubling almost every other day. The dead exceed one hundred and they also double every few days.
You want to know more? Here you have a guide to action against the virus and here you can see how it infects. If you want details to interpret the figures for each autonomy, the lethality and the number of tests per country, here you can read an analysis of the figures in Spain.